Daily Papers

Multi-RF Fusion achieves a test ROC-AUC of 0.8476 +/- 0.0002 on ogbg-molhiv (10 seeds), placing #1 on the OGB leaderboard ahead of HyperFusion (0.8475 +/- 0.0003). The core of the method is a rank-averaged ensemble of 12 Random Forest models trained on concatenated molecular fingerprints (FCFP, ECFP, MACCS, atom pairs -- 4,263 dimensions total), blended with deep-ensembled GNN predictions at 12% weight. Two findings drive the result: (1) setting max_features to 0.20 instead of the default sqrt(d) gives a +0.008 AUC gain on this scaffold split, and (2) averaging GNN predictions across 10 seeds before blending with the RF eliminates GNN seed variance entirely, dropping the final standard deviation from 0.0008 to 0.0002. No external data or pre-training is used.

A model pretrained to predict a customer's next event can estimate the probability of future events without training on their labels and provide a reusable representation for supervised downstream banking tasks. We pretrain EventGPT, a hierarchical causal transformer, by next-token maximum likelihood estimation on the public Multimodal Banking Dataset (MBD-mini: 100,224 clients, 38.8 million transactions and 66.3 million geolocation pings). Keeping one state per event, EventGPT trains in about two hours on one L4 GPU at windows up to 8,192 tokens. From its next-event distribution, with no labels, EventGPT scores five targets of the form "the client makes a transaction of a given kind for the first time next month" at ROC-AUC 0.79 to 0.92. Gradient boosting on 114 engineered features needs 10,000 to 300,000 labeled client-months to match it on four targets and stays below it on the fifth. For product prediction, frozen EventGPT embeddings score below the engineered features (mean ROC-AUC 0.787 against 0.808 over five test folds), and a rank-averaged ensemble of EventGPT, profile fields and token counts with the engineered features adds 0.014 to 0.017, of which 0.007 to 0.016 is EventGPT's own. The code and pretrained weights are released.

Deep ensemble methods often improve predictive performance, yet they suffer from three practical limitations: redundancy among base models that inflates computational cost and degrades conditioning, unstable weighting under multicollinearity, and overfitting in meta-learning pipelines. We propose a regularized meta-learning framework that addresses these challenges through a four-stage pipeline combining redundancy-aware projection, statistical meta-feature augmentation, and cross-validated regularized meta-models (Ridge, Lasso, and ElasticNet). Our multi-metric de-duplication strategy removes near-collinear predictors using correlation and MSE thresholds (τ_{corr}=0.95), reducing the effective condition number of the meta-design matrix while preserving predictive diversity. Engineered ensemble statistics and interaction terms recover higher-order structure unavailable to raw prediction columns. A final inverse-RMSE blending stage mitigates regularizer-selection variance. On the Playground Series S6E1 benchmark (100K samples, 72 base models), the proposed framework achieves an out-of-fold RMSE of 8.582, improving over simple averaging (8.894) and conventional Ridge stacking (8.627), while matching greedy hill climbing (8.603) with substantially lower runtime (4 times faster). Conditioning analysis shows a 53.7\% reduction in effective matrix condition number after redundancy projection. Comprehensive ablations demonstrate consistent contributions from de-duplication, statistical meta-features, and meta-ensemble blending. These results position regularized meta-learning as a stable and deployment-efficient stacking strategy for high-dimensional ensemble systems.

Automating machine learning has achieved remarkable technological developments in recent years, and building an automated machine learning pipeline is now an essential task. The model ensemble is the technique of combining multiple models to get a better and more robust model. However, existing automated machine learning tends to be simplistic in handling the model ensemble, where the ensemble strategy is fixed, such as stacked generalization. There have been many techniques on different ensemble methods, especially ensemble selection, and the fixed ensemble strategy limits the upper limit of the model's performance. In this article, we present a novel framework for automated machine learning. Our framework incorporates advances in dynamic ensemble selection, and to our best knowledge, our approach is the first in the field of AutoML to search and optimize ensemble strategies. In the comparison experiments, our method outperforms the state-of-the-art automated machine learning frameworks with the same CPU time in 42 classification datasets from the OpenML platform. Ablation experiments on our framework validate the effectiveness of our proposed method.

Generalization to out-of-distribution (OOD) data is a critical challenge in machine learning. Ensemble-based methods, like weight space ensembles that interpolate model parameters, have been shown to achieve superior OOD performance. However, the underlying mechanism for their effectiveness remains unclear. In this study, we closely examine WiSE-FT, a popular weight space ensemble method that interpolates between a pre-trained and a fine-tuned model. We observe an unexpected phenomenon, in which WiSE-FT successfully corrects many cases where each individual model makes incorrect predictions, which contributes significantly to its OOD effectiveness. To gain further insights, we conduct theoretical analysis in a multi-class setting with a large number of spurious features. Our analysis predicts the above phenomenon and it further shows that ensemble-based models reduce prediction errors in the OOD settings by utilizing a more diverse set of spurious features. Contrary to the conventional wisdom that focuses on learning invariant features for better OOD performance, our findings suggest that incorporating a large number of diverse spurious features weakens their individual contributions, leading to improved overall OOD generalization performance. Empirically we demonstrate the effectiveness of utilizing diverse spurious features on a MultiColorMNIST dataset, and our experimental results are consistent with the theoretical analysis. Building upon the new theoretical insights into the efficacy of ensemble methods, we further identify an issue of WiSE-FT caused by the overconfidence of fine-tuned models in OOD situations. This overconfidence magnifies the fine-tuned model's incorrect prediction, leading to deteriorated OOD ensemble performance. To remedy this problem, we propose a novel method called BAlaNced averaGing (BANG), which significantly enhances the OOD performance of WiSE-FT.

Studying low-likelihood high-impact extreme weather events in a warming world is a significant and challenging task for current ensemble forecasting systems. While these systems presently use up to 100 members, larger ensembles could enrich the sampling of internal variability. They may capture the long tails associated with climate hazards better than traditional ensemble sizes. Due to computational constraints, it is infeasible to generate huge ensembles (comprised of 1,000-10,000 members) with traditional, physics-based numerical models. In this two-part paper, we replace traditional numerical simulations with machine learning (ML) to generate hindcasts of huge ensembles. In Part I, we construct an ensemble weather forecasting system based on Spherical Fourier Neural Operators (SFNO), and we discuss important design decisions for constructing such an ensemble. The ensemble represents model uncertainty through perturbed-parameter techniques, and it represents initial condition uncertainty through bred vectors, which sample the fastest growing modes of the forecast. Using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) as a baseline, we develop an evaluation pipeline composed of mean, spectral, and extreme diagnostics. Using large-scale, distributed SFNOs with 1.1 billion learned parameters, we achieve calibrated probabilistic forecasts. As the trajectories of the individual members diverge, the ML ensemble mean spectra degrade with lead time, consistent with physical expectations. However, the individual ensemble members' spectra stay constant with lead time. Therefore, these members simulate realistic weather states, and the ML ensemble thus passes a crucial spectral test in the literature. The IFS and ML ensembles have similar Extreme Forecast Indices, and we show that the ML extreme weather forecasts are reliable and discriminating.

We introduce ensembles within score-based sampling methods to develop gradient-free approximate sampling techniques that leverage the collective dynamics of particle ensembles to compute approximate reverse diffusion drifts. We introduce the underlying methodology, emphasizing its relationship with generative diffusion models and the previously introduced F\"ollmer sampler. We demonstrate the efficacy of ensemble strategies through various examples, ranging from low- to medium-dimensionality sampling problems, including multi-modal and highly non-Gaussian probability distributions, and provide comparisons to traditional methods like NUTS. Our findings highlight the potential of ensemble strategies for modeling complex probability distributions in situations where gradients are unavailable. Finally, we showcase its application in the context of Bayesian inversion problems within the geophysical sciences.

Neural networks are known to produce poor uncertainty estimations, and a variety of approaches have been proposed to remedy this issue. This includes deep ensemble, a simple and effective method that achieves state-of-the-art results for uncertainty-aware learning tasks. In this work, we explore a combinatorial generalization of deep ensemble called deep combinatorial aggregation (DCA). DCA creates multiple instances of network components and aggregates their combinations to produce diversified model proposals and predictions. DCA components can be defined at different levels of granularity. And we discovered that coarse-grain DCAs can outperform deep ensemble for uncertainty-aware learning both in terms of predictive performance and uncertainty estimation. For fine-grain DCAs, we discover that an average parameterization approach named deep combinatorial weight averaging (DCWA) can improve the baseline training. It is on par with stochastic weight averaging (SWA) but does not require any custom training schedule or adaptation of BatchNorm layers. Furthermore, we propose a consistency enforcing loss that helps the training of DCWA and modelwise DCA. We experiment on in-domain, distributional shift, and out-of-distribution image classification tasks, and empirically confirm the effectiveness of DCWA and DCA approaches.

We propose a deep-learning system -- for the SQuAD2.0 task -- that finds, or indicates the lack of, a correct answer to a question in a context paragraph. Our goal is to learn an ensemble of heterogeneous SQuAD2.0 models that, when blended properly, outperforms the best model in the ensemble per se. We created a stacking ensemble that combines top-N predictions from two models, based on ALBERT and RoBERTa, into a multiclass classification task to pick the best answer out of their predictions. We explored various ensemble configurations, input representations, and model architectures. For evaluation, we examined test-set EM and F1 scores; our best-performing ensemble incorporated a CNN-based meta-model and scored 87.117 and 90.306, respectively -- a relative improvement of 0.55% for EM and 0.61% for F1 scores, compared to the baseline performance of the best model in the ensemble, an ALBERT-based model, at 86.644 for EM and 89.760 for F1.

Foundation models have become a dominant paradigm in machine learning, achieving remarkable performance across diverse tasks through large-scale pretraining. However, they often yield overconfident, uncalibrated predictions. The standard approach to quantifying epistemic uncertainty are ensembles of multiple independently trained models. But their computational cost scales linearly with ensemble size, making them impractical for large foundation models. We propose Singular Value Ensemble (SVE), a parameter-efficient implicit ensembling method. SVE builds on a simple, but powerful core assumption: namely, that the singular vectors of the weight matrices correspond to meaningful directions in the representation space. If the singular vectors are indeed meaningful (orthogonal) "knowledge directions", then a model ensemble can be obtained by modulating only how strongly each direction contributes to the output. Rather than learning new parameters for each ensemble member, we freeze the singular vectors and only train per-member singular values that rescale the contribution of each direction in that shared knowledge basis. Ensemble diversity emerges naturally during joint training as stochastic initialization and random batch sampling cause different members to converge to different combinations of the same underlying knowledge. SVE performs comparable to an explicit ensemble, while increasing the parameter count of the base model by <1%, making principled uncertainty estimation accessible in resource-constrained settings. We validate SVE on NLP and vision tasks with various different backbones and show that it improves calibration while maintaining predictive accuracy.

In Part I, we created an ensemble based on Spherical Fourier Neural Operators. As initial condition perturbations, we used bred vectors, and as model perturbations, we used multiple checkpoints trained independently from scratch. Based on diagnostics that assess the ensemble's physical fidelity, our ensemble has comparable performance to operational weather forecasting systems. However, it requires orders of magnitude fewer computational resources. Here in Part II, we generate a huge ensemble (HENS), with 7,424 members initialized each day of summer 2023. We enumerate the technical requirements for running huge ensembles at this scale. HENS precisely samples the tails of the forecast distribution and presents a detailed sampling of internal variability. HENS has two primary applications: (1) as a large dataset with which to study the statistics and drivers of extreme weather and (2) as a weather forecasting system. For extreme climate statistics, HENS samples events 4sigma away from the ensemble mean. At each grid cell, HENS increases the skill of the most accurate ensemble member and enhances coverage of possible future trajectories. As a weather forecasting model, HENS issues extreme weather forecasts with better uncertainty quantification. It also reduces the probability of outlier events, in which the verification value lies outside the ensemble forecast distribution.

Deep Ensembles (DE) are a prominent approach for achieving excellent performance on key metrics such as accuracy, calibration, uncertainty estimation, and out-of-distribution detection. However, hardware limitations of real-world systems constrain to smaller ensembles and lower-capacity networks, significantly deteriorating their performance and properties. We introduce Packed-Ensembles (PE), a strategy to design and train lightweight structured ensembles by carefully modulating the dimension of their encoding space. We leverage grouped convolutions to parallelize the ensemble into a single shared backbone and forward pass to improve training and inference speeds. PE is designed to operate within the memory limits of a standard neural network. Our extensive research indicates that PE accurately preserves the properties of DE, such as diversity, and performs equally well in terms of accuracy, calibration, out-of-distribution detection, and robustness to distribution shift. We make our code available at https://github.com/ENSTA-U2IS/torch-uncertainty.

Finetuned LLMs often exhibit poor uncertainty quantification, manifesting as overconfidence, poor calibration, and unreliable prediction results on test data or out-of-distribution samples. One approach commonly used in vision for alleviating this issue is a deep ensemble, which constructs an ensemble by training the same model multiple times using different random initializations. However, there is a huge challenge to ensembling LLMs: the most effective LLMs are very, very large. Keeping a single LLM in memory is already challenging enough: keeping an ensemble of e.g. 5 LLMs in memory is impossible in many settings. To address these issues, we propose an ensemble approach using Low-Rank Adapters (LoRA), a parameter-efficient fine-tuning technique. Critically, these low-rank adapters represent a very small number of parameters, orders of magnitude less than the underlying pre-trained model. Thus, it is possible to construct large ensembles of LoRA adapters with almost the same computational overhead as using the original model. We find that LoRA ensembles, applied on its own or on top of pre-existing regularization techniques, gives consistent improvements in predictive accuracy and uncertainty quantification.

A growing body of research in continual learning focuses on the catastrophic forgetting problem. While many attempts have been made to alleviate this problem, the majority of the methods assume a single model in the continual learning setup. In this work, we question this assumption and show that employing ensemble models can be a simple yet effective method to improve continual performance. However, ensembles' training and inference costs can increase significantly as the number of models grows. Motivated by this limitation, we study different ensemble models to understand their benefits and drawbacks in continual learning scenarios. Finally, to overcome the high compute cost of ensembles, we leverage recent advances in neural network subspace to propose a computationally cheap algorithm with similar runtime to a single model yet enjoying the performance benefits of ensembles.

The Combined Algorithm Selection and Hyperparameters optimization (CASH) problem is one of the fundamental problems in Automated Machine Learning (AutoML). Motivated by the success of ensemble learning, recent AutoML systems build post-hoc ensembles to output the final predictions instead of using the best single learner. However, while most CASH methods focus on searching for a single learner with the best performance, they neglect the diversity among base learners (i.e., they may suggest similar configurations to previously evaluated ones), which is also a crucial consideration when building an ensemble. To tackle this issue and further enhance the ensemble performance, we propose DivBO, a diversity-aware framework to inject explicit search of diversity into the CASH problems. In the framework, we propose to use a diversity surrogate to predict the pair-wise diversity of two unseen configurations. Furthermore, we introduce a temporary pool and a weighted acquisition function to guide the search of both performance and diversity based on Bayesian optimization. Empirical results on 15 public datasets show that DivBO achieves the best average ranks (1.82 and 1.73) on both validation and test errors among 10 compared methods, including post-hoc designs in recent AutoML systems and state-of-the-art baselines for ensemble learning on CASH problems.

In recent times, with the exception of sporadic cases, the trend in Computer Vision is to achieve minor improvements compared to considerable increases in complexity. To reverse this trend, we propose a novel method to boost image classification performances without increasing complexity. To this end, we revisited ensembling, a powerful approach, often not used properly due to its more complex nature and the training time, so as to make it feasible through a specific design choice. First, we trained two EfficientNet-b0 end-to-end models (known to be the architecture with the best overall accuracy/complexity trade-off for image classification) on disjoint subsets of data (i.e. bagging). Then, we made an efficient adaptive ensemble by performing fine-tuning of a trainable combination layer. In this way, we were able to outperform the state-of-the-art by an average of 0.5% on the accuracy, with restrained complexity both in terms of the number of parameters (by 5-60 times), and the FLoating point Operations Per Second (FLOPS) by 10-100 times on several major benchmark datasets.

We propose a direct estimation method for R\'{e}nyi and f-divergence measures based on a new graph theoretical interpretation. Suppose that we are given two sample sets X and Y, respectively with N and M samples, where eta:=M/N is a constant value. Considering the k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) graph of Y in the joint data set (X,Y), we show that the average powered ratio of the number of X points to the number of Y points among all k-NN points is proportional to R\'{e}nyi divergence of X and Y densities. A similar method can also be used to estimate f-divergence measures. We derive bias and variance rates, and show that for the class of gamma-H\"{o}lder smooth functions, the estimator achieves the MSE rate of O(N^{-2gamma/(gamma+d)}). Furthermore, by using a weighted ensemble estimation technique, for density functions with continuous and bounded derivatives of up to the order d, and some extra conditions at the support set boundary, we derive an ensemble estimator that achieves the parametric MSE rate of O(1/N). Our estimators are more computationally tractable than other competing estimators, which makes them appealing in many practical applications.

Automated machine learning (AutoML) systems commonly ensemble models post hoc to improve predictive performance, typically via greedy ensemble selection (GES). However, we believe that GES may not always be optimal, as it performs a simple deterministic greedy search. In this work, we introduce two novel population-based ensemble selection methods, QO-ES and QDO-ES, and compare them to GES. While QO-ES optimises solely for predictive performance, QDO-ES also considers the diversity of ensembles within the population, maintaining a diverse set of well-performing ensembles during optimisation based on ideas of quality diversity optimisation. The methods are evaluated using 71 classification datasets from the AutoML benchmark, demonstrating that QO-ES and QDO-ES often outrank GES, albeit only statistically significant on validation data. Our results further suggest that diversity can be beneficial for post hoc ensembling but also increases the risk of overfitting.

Quantile regression is a fundamental problem in statistical learning motivated by a need to quantify uncertainty in predictions, or to model a diverse population without being overly reductive. For instance, epidemiological forecasts, cost estimates, and revenue predictions all benefit from being able to quantify the range of possible values accurately. As such, many models have been developed for this problem over many years of research in statistics, machine learning, and related fields. Rather than proposing yet another (new) algorithm for quantile regression we adopt a meta viewpoint: we investigate methods for aggregating any number of conditional quantile models, in order to improve accuracy and robustness. We consider weighted ensembles where weights may vary over not only individual models, but also over quantile levels, and feature values. All of the models we consider in this paper can be fit using modern deep learning toolkits, and hence are widely accessible (from an implementation point of view) and scalable. To improve the accuracy of the predicted quantiles (or equivalently, prediction intervals), we develop tools for ensuring that quantiles remain monotonically ordered, and apply conformal calibration methods. These can be used without any modification of the original library of base models. We also review some basic theory surrounding quantile aggregation and related scoring rules, and contribute a few new results to this literature (for example, the fact that post sorting or post isotonic regression can only improve the weighted interval score). Finally, we provide an extensive suite of empirical comparisons across 34 data sets from two different benchmark repositories.

Randomized ensemble classifiers (RECs), where one classifier is randomly selected during inference, have emerged as an attractive alternative to traditional ensembling methods for realizing adversarially robust classifiers with limited compute requirements. However, recent works have shown that existing methods for constructing RECs are more vulnerable than initially claimed, casting major doubts on their efficacy and prompting fundamental questions such as: "When are RECs useful?", "What are their limits?", and "How do we train them?". In this work, we first demystify RECs as we derive fundamental results regarding their theoretical limits, necessary and sufficient conditions for them to be useful, and more. Leveraging this new understanding, we propose a new boosting algorithm (BARRE) for training robust RECs, and empirically demonstrate its effectiveness at defending against strong ell_infty norm-bounded adversaries across various network architectures and datasets. Our code can be found at https://github.com/hsndbk4/BARRE.

Deep Ensembles (DEs) demonstrate improved accuracy, calibration and robustness to perturbations over single neural networks partly due to their functional diversity. Particle-based variational inference (ParVI) methods enhance diversity by formalizing a repulsion term based on a network similarity kernel. However, weight-space repulsion is inefficient due to over-parameterization, while direct function-space repulsion has been found to produce little improvement over DEs. To sidestep these difficulties, we propose First-order Repulsive Deep Ensemble (FoRDE), an ensemble learning method based on ParVI, which performs repulsion in the space of first-order input gradients. As input gradients uniquely characterize a function up to translation and are much smaller in dimension than the weights, this method guarantees that ensemble members are functionally different. Intuitively, diversifying the input gradients encourages each network to learn different features, which is expected to improve the robustness of an ensemble. Experiments on image classification datasets and transfer learning tasks show that FoRDE significantly outperforms the gold-standard DEs and other ensemble methods in accuracy and calibration under covariate shift due to input perturbations.

Combining different models is a widely used paradigm in machine learning applications. While the most common approach is to form an ensemble of models and average their individual predictions, this approach is often rendered infeasible by given resource constraints in terms of memory and computation, which grow linearly with the number of models. We present a layer-wise model fusion algorithm for neural networks that utilizes optimal transport to (soft-) align neurons across the models before averaging their associated parameters. We show that this can successfully yield "one-shot" knowledge transfer (i.e, without requiring any retraining) between neural networks trained on heterogeneous non-i.i.d. data. In both i.i.d. and non-i.i.d. settings , we illustrate that our approach significantly outperforms vanilla averaging, as well as how it can serve as an efficient replacement for the ensemble with moderate fine-tuning, for standard convolutional networks (like VGG11), residual networks (like ResNet18), and multi-layer perceptrons on CIFAR10, CIFAR100, and MNIST. Finally, our approach also provides a principled way to combine the parameters of neural networks with different widths, and we explore its application for model compression. The code is available at the following link, https://github.com/sidak/otfusion.

Contrastively trained text-image models have the remarkable ability to perform zero-shot classification, that is, classifying previously unseen images into categories that the model has never been explicitly trained to identify. However, these zero-shot classifiers need prompt engineering to achieve high accuracy. Prompt engineering typically requires hand-crafting a set of prompts for individual downstream tasks. In this work, we aim to automate this prompt engineering and improve zero-shot accuracy through prompt ensembling. In particular, we ask "Given a large pool of prompts, can we automatically score the prompts and ensemble those that are most suitable for a particular downstream dataset, without needing access to labeled validation data?". We demonstrate that this is possible. In doing so, we identify several pathologies in a naive prompt scoring method where the score can be easily overconfident due to biases in pre-training and test data, and we propose a novel prompt scoring method that corrects for the biases. Using our proposed scoring method to create a weighted average prompt ensemble, our method outperforms equal average ensemble, as well as hand-crafted prompts, on ImageNet, 4 of its variants, and 11 fine-grained classification benchmarks, all while being fully automatic, optimization-free, and not requiring access to labeled validation data.

imbalanced-ensemble, abbreviated as imbens, is an open-source Python toolbox for leveraging the power of ensemble learning to address the class imbalance problem. It provides standard implementations of popular ensemble imbalanced learning (EIL) methods with extended features and utility functions. These ensemble methods include resampling-based, e.g., under/over-sampling, and reweighting-based, e.g., cost-sensitive learning. Beyond the implementation, we empower EIL algorithms with new functionalities like customizable resampling scheduler and verbose logging, thus enabling more flexible training and evaluating strategies. The package was developed under a simple, well-documented API design that follows scikit-learn for increased ease of use. imbens is released under the MIT open-source license and can be installed from Python Package Index (PyPI) or https://github.com/ZhiningLiu1998/imbalanced-ensemble.

The ability of an architecture to realize permutations is quite fundamental. For example, Large Language Models need to be able to correctly copy (and perhaps rearrange) parts of the input prompt into the output. Classical universal approximation theorems guarantee the existence of parameter configurations that solve this task but offer no insights into whether gradient-based algorithms can find them. In this paper, we address this gap by focusing on two-layer fully connected feed-forward neural networks and the task of learning permutations on nonzero binary inputs. We show that in the infinite width Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK) regime, an ensemble of such networks independently trained with gradient descent on only the k standard basis vectors out of 2^k - 1 possible inputs successfully learns any fixed permutation of length k with arbitrarily high probability. By analyzing the exact training dynamics, we prove that the network's output converges to a Gaussian process whose mean captures the ground truth permutation via sign-based features. We then demonstrate how averaging these runs (an "ensemble" method) and applying a simple rounding step yields an arbitrarily accurate prediction on any possible input unseen during training. Notably, the number of models needed to achieve exact learning with high probability (which we refer to as ensemble complexity) exhibits a linearithmic dependence on the input size k for a single test input and a quadratic dependence when considering all test inputs simultaneously.

We present EARCP (Ensemble Auto-Régulé par Cohérence et Performance), a novel ensemble architecture that dynamically weights heterogeneous expert models based on both their individual performance and inter-model coherence. Unlike traditional ensemble methods that rely on static or offline-learned combinations, EARCP continuously adapts model weights through a principled online learning mechanism that balances exploitation of high-performing models with exploration guided by consensus signals. The architecture combines theoretical foundations from multiplicative weight update algorithms with a novel coherence-based regularization term, providing both theoretical guarantees through regret bounds and practical robustness in non-stationary environments. We formalize the EARCP framework, prove sublinear regret bounds of O(sqrt(T log M)) under standard assumptions, and demonstrate its effectiveness through empirical evaluation on sequential prediction tasks including time series forecasting, activity recognition, and financial prediction. The architecture is designed as a general-purpose framework applicable to any domain requiring ensemble learning with temporal dependencies. An open-source implementation is available at https://github.com/Volgat/earcp and via PyPI (pip install earcp).

Model selection is a strategy aimed at creating accurate and robust models. A key challenge in designing these algorithms is identifying the optimal model for classifying any particular input sample. This paper addresses this challenge and proposes a novel framework for differentiable model selection integrating machine learning and combinatorial optimization. The framework is tailored for ensemble learning, a strategy that combines the outputs of individually pre-trained models, and learns to select appropriate ensemble members for a particular input sample by transforming the ensemble learning task into a differentiable selection program trained end-to-end within the ensemble learning model. Tested on various tasks, the proposed framework demonstrates its versatility and effectiveness, outperforming conventional and advanced consensus rules across a variety of settings and learning tasks.

It is of great significance to estimate the performance of a given model architecture without training in the application of Neural Architecture Search (NAS) as it may take a lot of time to evaluate the performance of an architecture. In this paper, a novel NAS framework called GP-NAS-ensemble is proposed to predict the performance of a neural network architecture with a small training dataset. We make several improvements on the GP-NAS model to make it share the advantage of ensemble learning methods. Our method ranks second in the CVPR2022 second lightweight NAS challenge performance prediction track.

Agriculture is increasingly challenged by climate change, soil degradation, and resource depletion, and hence requires advanced data-driven crop classification and recommendation solutions. This work presents an explainable ensemble learning paradigm that fuses optimized feature pyramids, deep networks, self-attention mechanisms, and residual networks for bolstering crop suitability predictions based on soil characteristics (e.g., pH, nitrogen, potassium) and climatic conditions (e.g., temperature, rainfall). With a dataset comprising 3,867 instances and 29 features from the Ethiopian Agricultural Transformation Agency and NASA, the paradigm leverages preprocessing methods such as label encoding, outlier removal using IQR, normalization through StandardScaler, and SMOTE for balancing classes. A range of machine learning models such as Logistic Regression, K-Nearest Neighbors, Support Vector Machines, Decision Trees, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, and a new Relative Error Support Vector Machine are compared, with hyperparameter tuning through Grid Search and cross-validation. The suggested "Final Ensemble" meta-ensemble design outperforms with 98.80% accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score, compared to individual models such as K-Nearest Neighbors (95.56% accuracy). Explainable AI methods, such as SHAP and permutation importance, offer actionable insights, highlighting critical features such as soil pH, nitrogen, and zinc. The paradigm addresses the gap between intricate ML models and actionable agricultural decision-making, fostering sustainability and trust in AI-powered recommendations

The predictability of the generative AI-based nowcasting model LDCast (trained on another region) is evaluated over Belgium, together with the pysteps implementation of the nowcasting algorithm STEPS. STEPS and LDCast are slightly underdispersive, but the ensemble spread provides an estimation of the error at almost all scales. Both models adapt the properties of their ensembles to the type of event, either convective or stratiform. The spatial scores of the STEPS and LDCast ensembles are compared with those of surrogate ensembles having some key properties, revealing that both STEPS and LDCast have very little ability to spatially localise the ensemble mean error vector through their ensemble members. This suggests that the content of STEPS and LDCast ensembles is informative in terms of statistics, but not in terms of dynamics.

Deep ensemble is a simple yet powerful way to improve the performance of deep neural networks. Under this motivation, recent works on mode connectivity have shown that parameters of ensembles are connected by low-loss subspaces, and one can efficiently collect ensemble parameters in those subspaces. While this provides a way to efficiently train ensembles, for inference, multiple forward passes should still be executed using all the ensemble parameters, which often becomes a serious bottleneck for real-world deployment. In this work, we propose a novel framework to reduce such costs. Given a low-loss subspace connecting two modes of a neural network, we build an additional neural network that predicts the output of the original neural network evaluated at a certain point in the low-loss subspace. The additional neural network, which we call a "bridge", is a lightweight network that takes minimal features from the original network and predicts outputs for the low-loss subspace without forward passes through the original network. We empirically demonstrate that we can indeed train such bridge networks and significantly reduce inference costs with the help of bridge networks.

Ensembling is among the most popular tools in machine learning (ML) due to its effectiveness in minimizing variance and thus improving generalization. Most ensembling methods for black-box base learners fall under the umbrella of "stacked generalization," namely training an ML algorithm that takes the inferences from the base learners as input. While stacking has been widely applied in practice, its theoretical properties are poorly understood. In this paper, we prove a novel result, showing that choosing the best stacked generalization from a (finite or finite-dimensional) family of stacked generalizations based on cross-validated performance does not perform "much worse" than the oracle best. Our result strengthens and significantly extends the results in Van der Laan et al. (2007). Inspired by the theoretical analysis, we further propose a particular family of stacked generalizations in the context of probabilistic forecasting, each one with a different sensitivity for how much the ensemble weights are allowed to vary across items, timestamps in the forecast horizon, and quantiles. Experimental results demonstrate the performance gain of the proposed method.

It is impossible today to pretend that the practice of machine learning is compatible with the idea that training and testing data follow the same distribution. Several authors have recently used ensemble techniques to show how scenarios involving multiple data distributions are best served by representations that are both richer than those obtained by regularizing for the best in-distribution performance, and richer than those obtained under the influence of the implicit sparsity bias of common stochastic gradient procedures. This contribution investigates the use of very high dropout rates instead of ensembles to obtain such rich representations. Although training a deep network from scratch using such dropout rates is virtually impossible, fine-tuning a large pre-trained model under such conditions is not only possible but also achieves out-of-distribution performances that exceed those of both ensembles and weight averaging methods such as model soups. This result has practical significance because the importance of the fine-tuning scenario has considerably grown in recent years. This result also provides interesting insights on the nature of rich representations and on the intrinsically linear nature of fine-tuning a large network using a comparatively small dataset.

We study sampling algorithms for β-ensembles with time complexity less than cubic in the cardinality of the ensemble. Following Dumitriu & Edelman (2002), we see the ensemble as the eigenvalues of a random tridiagonal matrix, namely a random Jacobi matrix. First, we provide a unifying and elementary treatment of the tridiagonal models associated to the three classical Hermite, Laguerre and Jacobi ensembles. For this purpose, we use simple changes of variables between successive reparametrizations of the coefficients defining the tridiagonal matrix. Second, we derive an approximate sampler for the simulation of β-ensembles, and illustrate how fast it can be for polynomial potentials. This method combines a Gibbs sampler on Jacobi matrices and the diagonalization of these matrices. In practice, even for large ensembles, only a few Gibbs passes suffice for the marginal distribution of the eigenvalues to fit the expected theoretical distribution. When the conditionals in the Gibbs sampler can be simulated exactly, the same fast empirical convergence is observed for the fluctuations of the largest eigenvalue. Our experimental results support a conjecture by Krishnapur et al. (2016), that the Gibbs chain on Jacobi matrices of size N mixes in O(log(N)).

The black-box adversarial attack has attracted impressive attention for its practical use in the field of deep learning security. Meanwhile, it is very challenging as there is no access to the network architecture or internal weights of the target model. Based on the hypothesis that if an example remains adversarial for multiple models, then it is more likely to transfer the attack capability to other models, the ensemble-based adversarial attack methods are efficient and widely used for black-box attacks. However, ways of ensemble attack are rather less investigated, and existing ensemble attacks simply fuse the outputs of all the models evenly. In this work, we treat the iterative ensemble attack as a stochastic gradient descent optimization process, in which the variance of the gradients on different models may lead to poor local optima. To this end, we propose a novel attack method called the stochastic variance reduced ensemble (SVRE) attack, which could reduce the gradient variance of the ensemble models and take full advantage of the ensemble attack. Empirical results on the standard ImageNet dataset demonstrate that the proposed method could boost the adversarial transferability and outperforms existing ensemble attacks significantly. Code is available at https://github.com/JHL-HUST/SVRE.

Probabilistic forecasting is crucial to decision-making under uncertainty about future weather. The dominant approach is to use an ensemble of forecasts to represent and quantify uncertainty in operational numerical weather prediction. However, generating ensembles is computationally costly. In this paper, we propose to generate ensemble forecasts at scale by leveraging recent advances in generative artificial intelligence. Our approach learns a data-driven probabilistic diffusion model from the 5-member ensemble GEFS reforecast dataset. The model can then be sampled efficiently to produce realistic weather forecasts, conditioned on a few members of the operational GEFS forecasting system. The generated ensembles have similar predictive skill as the full GEFS 31-member ensemble, evaluated against ERA5 reanalysis, and emulate well the statistics of large physics-based ensembles. We also apply the same methodology to developing a diffusion model for generative post-processing: the model directly learns to correct biases present in the emulated forecasting system by leveraging reanalysis data as labels during training. Ensembles from this generative post-processing model show greater reliability and accuracy, particularly in extreme event classification. In general, they are more reliable and forecast the probability of extreme weather more accurately than the GEFS operational ensemble. Our models achieve these results at less than 1/10th of the computational cost incurred by the operational GEFS system.

Ensemble-based attacks have been proven to be effective in enhancing adversarial transferability by aggregating the outputs of models with various architectures. However, existing research primarily focuses on refining ensemble weights or optimizing the ensemble path, overlooking the exploration of ensemble models to enhance the transferability of adversarial attacks. To address this gap, we propose applying adversarial augmentation to the surrogate models, aiming to boost overall generalization of ensemble models and reduce the risk of adversarial overfitting. Meanwhile, observing that ensemble Vision Transformers (ViTs) gain less attention, we propose ViT-EnsembleAttack based on the idea of model adversarial augmentation, the first ensemble-based attack method tailored for ViTs to the best of our knowledge. Our approach generates augmented models for each surrogate ViT using three strategies: Multi-head dropping, Attention score scaling, and MLP feature mixing, with the associated parameters optimized by Bayesian optimization. These adversarially augmented models are ensembled to generate adversarial examples. Furthermore, we introduce Automatic Reweighting and Step Size Enlargement modules to boost transferability. Extensive experiments demonstrate that ViT-EnsembleAttack significantly enhances the adversarial transferability of ensemble-based attacks on ViTs, outperforming existing methods by a substantial margin. Code is available at https://github.com/Trustworthy-AI-Group/TransferAttack.

A very simple way to improve the performance of almost any machine learning algorithm is to train many different models on the same data and then to average their predictions. Unfortunately, making predictions using a whole ensemble of models is cumbersome and may be too computationally expensive to allow deployment to a large number of users, especially if the individual models are large neural nets. Caruana and his collaborators have shown that it is possible to compress the knowledge in an ensemble into a single model which is much easier to deploy and we develop this approach further using a different compression technique. We achieve some surprising results on MNIST and we show that we can significantly improve the acoustic model of a heavily used commercial system by distilling the knowledge in an ensemble of models into a single model. We also introduce a new type of ensemble composed of one or more full models and many specialist models which learn to distinguish fine-grained classes that the full models confuse. Unlike a mixture of experts, these specialist models can be trained rapidly and in parallel.

The field of defense strategies against adversarial attacks has significantly grown over the last years, but progress is hampered as the evaluation of adversarial defenses is often insufficient and thus gives a wrong impression of robustness. Many promising defenses could be broken later on, making it difficult to identify the state-of-the-art. Frequent pitfalls in the evaluation are improper tuning of hyperparameters of the attacks, gradient obfuscation or masking. In this paper we first propose two extensions of the PGD-attack overcoming failures due to suboptimal step size and problems of the objective function. We then combine our novel attacks with two complementary existing ones to form a parameter-free, computationally affordable and user-independent ensemble of attacks to test adversarial robustness. We apply our ensemble to over 50 models from papers published at recent top machine learning and computer vision venues. In all except one of the cases we achieve lower robust test accuracy than reported in these papers, often by more than 10%, identifying several broken defenses.

Post-training of language models is commonly framed as a sample-score-update loop implemented by gradient descent. A recent line of work, exemplified by RandOpt, relocates this loop to weight space, sampling Gaussian perturbations around a pretrained model and ensembling the top-K rewarded specialists at inference. While competitive with PPO and GRPO under matched training compute, this prediction-level ensemble incurs K forward passes per test example and does not extend cleanly to free-form generation. We ask whether the rewarded population can instead be folded into a single deployable model, replacing the inference-time ensemble with one consolidated update. A split-half analysis over 25 model-task pairs reveals reproducible low-rank structure in every case. We turn this geometry into CoRP (Consolidating Rewarded Perturbations), a gradient-free operator that combines reward-weighted aggregation, compatibility-aware reweighting, and a held-out validation gate, with no gradient flowing through the language model. Across five language models from 0.5B to 8B and five tasks covering math, code, and creative writing, CoRP improves the base model by 8.1 points on average. Using one tenth of RandOpt's perturbation budget, CoRP exceeds single-inference RandOpt by 6.5 points and recovers more than half of the gain of the 50-pass majority-vote ensemble, at one forward pass per test example.

This study proposes a two-level stacking ensemble framework for Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prediction of turbofan engines, evaluated on the NASA C-MAPSS benchmark using the FD001 and FD003 subsets. The framework integrates four heterogeneous deep learning base learners: Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), CNN-LSTM, and CNN-GRU, whose out-of-fold predictions are combined by an XGBoost meta-learner to capture complex degradation patterns while mitigating individual model biases. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that the stacking ensemble achieves superior predictive performance, with Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 9.989 and 8.613, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 7.081 and 5.195, and R-squared values of 0.899 and 0.906 for FD001 and FD003, respectively. Compared to the best-reported baseline (TCAT: RMSE 11.12 and 11.02), the proposed method achieves RMSE reductions of 10.2 percent and 21.8 percent for FD001 and FD003, respectively. Feature correlation analysis, residual diagnostics, and training convergence curves validate the model's robustness. These findings underscore the efficacy of stacking ensemble methods for prognostics and health management in safety-critical aerospace applications.

Class-imbalanced learning (CIL) on tabular data is important in many real-world applications where the minority class holds the critical but rare outcomes. In this paper, we present CLIMB, a comprehensive benchmark for class-imbalanced learning on tabular data. CLIMB includes 73 real-world datasets across diverse domains and imbalance levels, along with unified implementations of 29 representative CIL algorithms. Built on a high-quality open-source Python package with unified API designs, detailed documentation, and rigorous code quality controls, CLIMB supports easy implementation and comparison between different CIL algorithms. Through extensive experiments, we provide practical insights on method accuracy and efficiency, highlighting the limitations of naive rebalancing, the effectiveness of ensembles, and the importance of data quality. Our code, documentation, and examples are available at https://github.com/ZhiningLiu1998/imbalanced-ensemble.

In Machine Learning, a benchmark refers to an ensemble of datasets associated with one or multiple metrics together with a way to aggregate different systems performances. They are instrumental in (i) assessing the progress of new methods along different axes and (ii) selecting the best systems for practical use. This is particularly the case for NLP with the development of large pre-trained models (e.g. GPT, BERT) that are expected to generalize well on a variety of tasks. While the community mainly focused on developing new datasets and metrics, there has been little interest in the aggregation procedure, which is often reduced to a simple average over various performance measures. However, this procedure can be problematic when the metrics are on a different scale, which may lead to spurious conclusions. This paper proposes a new procedure to rank systems based on their performance across different tasks. Motivated by the social choice theory, the final system ordering is obtained through aggregating the rankings induced by each task and is theoretically grounded. We conduct extensive numerical experiments (on over 270k scores) to assess the soundness of our approach both on synthetic and real scores (e.g. GLUE, EXTREM, SEVAL, TAC, FLICKR). In particular, we show that our method yields different conclusions on state-of-the-art systems than the mean-aggregation procedure while being both more reliable and robust.

Ensembling multiple models has always been an effective approach to push the limits of existing performance and is widely used in classification tasks by simply averaging the classification probability vectors from multiple classifiers to achieve better accuracy. However, in the thriving open-source Large Language Model (LLM) community, ensembling methods are rare and typically limited to ensembling the full-text outputs of LLMs, such as selecting the best output using a ranker, which leads to underutilization of token-level probability information. In this paper, we treat the Generation of each token by LLMs as a Classification (GaC) for ensembling. This approach fully exploits the probability information at each generation step and better prevents LLMs from producing early incorrect tokens that lead to snowballing errors. In experiments, we ensemble state-of-the-art LLMs on several benchmarks, including exams, mathematics and reasoning, and observe that our method breaks the existing community performance ceiling. Furthermore, we observed that most of the tokens in the answer are simple and do not affect the correctness of the final answer. Therefore, we also experimented with ensembling only key tokens, and the results showed better performance with lower latency across benchmarks.

Building on the probability-domain distillation framework of Sparse-KD, we develop an axiomatic, operator-theoretic framework for multi-teacher ensemble knowledge distillation. Rather than prescribing a specific aggregation formula, we define five core axioms governing valid knowledge aggregation operators, encompassing convexity, positivity, continuity, weight monotonicity, and temperature coherence. We prove the existence and non-uniqueness of operator families satisfying these axioms, establishing that multiple distinct aggregation mechanisms conform to the same foundational principles. Within this framework, we establish operator-agnostic guarantees showing that multi-teacher aggregation reduces both stochastic variance and systematic supervisory bias under heterogeneous teachers, while providing Jensen-type bounds, log-loss guarantees, and safety attenuation properties. For aggregation operators linear in teacher weights, we further establish classical ensemble variance-reduction results under standard independence assumptions, with extensions to correlated-error regimes. The framework provides theoretical grounding for multi-teacher distillation from diverse frontier models while admitting multiple valid implementation strategies.

We present our winning system for Task~B (generation with reference passages) in SemEval-2026 Task~8: MTRAGEval. Our method is a heterogeneous ensemble of seven LLMs with two prompting variants, where a GPT-4o-mini judge selects the best candidate per instance. We ranked 1st out of 26 teams, achieving a conditioned harmonic mean of 0.7827 and outperforming the strongest baseline (gpt-oss-120b, 0.6390). Ablations show that diversity in model families, scales, and prompting strategies is essential, with the ensemble consistently beating any single model. We also introduce Meno-Lite-0.1, a 7B domain-adapted model with a strong cost--performance trade-off, and analyse MTRAGEval, highlighting annotation limitations and directions for improvement. Our code is publicly available: https://github.com/RaguTeam/ragu_mtrag_semeval

Deep ensembles (DE) have been successful in improving model performance by learning diverse members via the stochasticity of random initialization. While recent works have attempted to promote further diversity in DE via hyperparameters or regularizing loss functions, these methods primarily still rely on a stochastic approach to explore the hypothesis space. In this work, we present Multi-Symmetry Ensembles (MSE), a framework for constructing diverse ensembles by capturing the multiplicity of hypotheses along symmetry axes, which explore the hypothesis space beyond stochastic perturbations of model weights and hyperparameters. We leverage recent advances in contrastive representation learning to create models that separately capture opposing hypotheses of invariant and equivariant functional classes and present a simple ensembling approach to efficiently combine appropriate hypotheses for a given task. We show that MSE effectively captures the multiplicity of conflicting hypotheses that is often required in large, diverse datasets like ImageNet. As a result of their inherent diversity, MSE improves classification performance, uncertainty quantification, and generalization across a series of transfer tasks.

Deep Ensembles are a simple, reliable, and effective method of improving both the predictive performance and uncertainty estimates of deep learning approaches. However, they are widely criticised as being computationally expensive, due to the need to deploy multiple independent models. Recent work has challenged this view, showing that for predictive accuracy, ensembles can be more computationally efficient (at inference) than scaling single models within an architecture family. This is achieved by cascading ensemble members via an early-exit approach. In this work, we investigate extending these efficiency gains to tasks related to uncertainty estimation. As many such tasks, e.g. selective classification, are binary classification, our key novel insight is to only pass samples within a window close to the binary decision boundary to later cascade stages. Experiments on ImageNet-scale data across a number of network architectures and uncertainty tasks show that the proposed window-based early-exit approach is able to achieve a superior uncertainty-computation trade-off compared to scaling single models. For example, a cascaded EfficientNet-B2 ensemble is able to achieve similar coverage at 5% risk as a single EfficientNet-B4 with <30% the number of MACs. We also find that cascades/ensembles give more reliable improvements on OOD data vs scaling models up. Code for this work is available at: https://github.com/Guoxoug/window-early-exit.

Over the last three decades, ensemble forecasts have become an integral part of forecasting the weather. They provide users with more complete information than single forecasts as they permit to estimate the probability of weather events by representing the sources of uncertainties and accounting for the day-to-day variability of error growth in the atmosphere. This paper presents a novel approach to obtain a weather forecast model for ensemble forecasting with machine-learning. AIFS-CRPS is a variant of the Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (AIFS) developed at ECMWF. Its loss function is based on a proper score, the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS). For the loss, the almost fair CRPS is introduced because it approximately removes the bias in the score due to finite ensemble size yet avoids a degeneracy of the fair CRPS. The trained model is stochastic and can generate as many exchangeable members as desired and computationally feasible in inference. For medium-range forecasts AIFS-CRPS outperforms the physics-based Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) ensemble for the majority of variables and lead times. For subseasonal forecasts, AIFS-CRPS outperforms the IFS ensemble before calibration and is competitive with the IFS ensemble when forecasts are evaluated as anomalies to remove the influence of model biases.

End-to-end weather forecasting systems produce skillful global gridded and station forecasts directly from raw Earth observations, replacing the numerical weather prediction pipeline, including data assimilation, at a fraction of its cost. These systems are deterministic and issue no uncertainty. Here we render the Aardvark Weather model probabilistic by attaching one stochastic mechanism to each component: learned, input-dependent noise at the observation encoder, capturing aleatoric uncertainty inherited from the observing system, and Monte Carlo dropout in the processor, capturing epistemic uncertainty in the learned dynamics. The resulting nested ensemble attributes forecast spread to the two sources through a law-of-total-variance decomposition, cross-checked by withholding observation streams. Probabilistic finetuning significantly improves the mean forecast, by 4.2% on average across variables and lead times. The ensemble is calibrated against ERA5 through the medium range (spread-skill ratio 0.98), keeps station RMSE within 2.4% of the deterministic model while beating it in CRPS at every lead time, and trails the operational ECMWF ensemble. The encoder branch behaves as observation-driven uncertainty. Component-attributed uncertainty makes end-to-end forecasts more transparent, a step toward observation-driven digital twins of the atmosphere.

Since the weather is chaotic, forecasts aim to predict the distribution of future states rather than make a single prediction. Recently, multiple data driven weather models have emerged claiming breakthroughs in skill. However, these have mostly been benchmarked using deterministic skill scores, and little is known about their probabilistic skill. Unfortunately, it is hard to fairly compare AI weather models in a probabilistic sense, since variations in choice of ensemble initialization, definition of state, and noise injection methodology become confounding. Moreover, even obtaining ensemble forecast baselines is a substantial engineering challenge given the data volumes involved. We sidestep both problems by applying a decades-old idea -- lagged ensembles -- whereby an ensemble can be constructed from a moderately-sized library of deterministic forecasts. This allows the first parameter-free intercomparison of leading AI weather models' probabilistic skill against an operational baseline. The results reveal that two leading AI weather models, i.e. GraphCast and Pangu, are tied on the probabilistic CRPS metric even though the former outperforms the latter in deterministic scoring. We also reveal how multiple time-step loss functions, which many data-driven weather models have employed, are counter-productive: they improve deterministic metrics at the cost of increased dissipation, deteriorating probabilistic skill. This is confirmed through ablations applied to a spherical Fourier Neural Operator (SFNO) approach to AI weather forecasting. Separate SFNO ablations modulating effective resolution reveal it has a useful effect on ensemble dispersion relevant to achieving good ensemble calibration. We hope these and forthcoming insights from lagged ensembles can help guide the development of AI weather forecasts and have thus shared the diagnostic code.

In this paper, we focus on quantifying model stability as a function of random seed by investigating the effects of the induced randomness on model performance and the robustness of the model in general. We specifically perform a controlled study on the effect of random seeds on the behaviour of attention, gradient-based and surrogate model based (LIME) interpretations. Our analysis suggests that random seeds can adversely affect the consistency of models resulting in counterfactual interpretations. We propose a technique called Aggressive Stochastic Weight Averaging (ASWA)and an extension called Norm-filtered Aggressive Stochastic Weight Averaging (NASWA) which improves the stability of models over random seeds. With our ASWA and NASWA based optimization, we are able to improve the robustness of the original model, on average reducing the standard deviation of the model's performance by 72%.

We present a probabilistic data-driven weather model capable of providing an ensemble of high spatial resolution realizations of 87 variables at arbitrary forecast length and ensemble size. The model uses a stretched grid, dedicating 2.5 km resolution to a region of interest, and 31 km resolution elsewhere. Based on a stochastic encoder-decoder architecture, the model is trained using a loss function based on the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) evaluated point-wise in real and spectral space. The spectral loss components is shown to be necessary to create fields that are spatially coherent. The model is compared to high-resolution operational numerical weather prediction forecasts from the MetCoOp Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS), showing competitive forecasts when evaluated against observations from surface weather stations. The model produced fields that are more spatially coherent than mean squared error based models and CRPS based models without the spectral component in the loss.

Automatic snake species recognition is important because it has vast potential to help lower deaths and disabilities caused by snakebites. We introduce our solution in SnakeCLEF 2022 for fine-grained snake species recognition on a heavy long-tailed class distribution. First, a network architecture is designed to extract and fuse features from multiple modalities, i.e. photograph from visual modality and geographic locality information from language modality. Then, logit adjustment based methods are studied to relieve the impact caused by the severe class imbalance. Next, a combination of supervised and self-supervised learning method is proposed to make full use of the dataset, including both labeled training data and unlabeled testing data. Finally, post processing strategies, such as multi-scale and multi-crop test-time-augmentation, location filtering and model ensemble, are employed for better performance. With an ensemble of several different models, a private score 82.65%, ranking the 3rd, is achieved on the final leaderboard.

Deep metric learning aims to learn an embedding function, modeled as deep neural network. This embedding function usually puts semantically similar images close while dissimilar images far from each other in the learned embedding space. Recently, ensemble has been applied to deep metric learning to yield state-of-the-art results. As one important aspect of ensemble, the learners should be diverse in their feature embeddings. To this end, we propose an attention-based ensemble, which uses multiple attention masks, so that each learner can attend to different parts of the object. We also propose a divergence loss, which encourages diversity among the learners. The proposed method is applied to the standard benchmarks of deep metric learning and experimental results show that it outperforms the state-of-the-art methods by a significant margin on image retrieval tasks.

Ensemble forecasting is crucial for improving weather predictions, especially for forecasts of extreme events. Constructing an ensemble prediction system (EPS) based on conventional NWP models is highly computationally expensive. ML models have emerged as valuable tools for deterministic weather forecasts, providing forecasts with significantly reduced computational requirements and even surpassing the forecast performance of traditional NWP models. However, challenges arise when applying ML models to ensemble forecasting. Recent ML models, such as GenCast and SEEDS model, rely on the ERA5 EDA or operational NWP ensemble members for forecast generation. Their spatial resolution is also considered too coarse for many applications. To overcome these limitations, we introduce FuXi-ENS, an advanced ML model designed to deliver 6-hourly global ensemble weather forecasts up to 15 days. This model runs at a significantly increased spatial resolution of 0.25\textdegree, incorporating 5 atmospheric variables at 13 pressure levels, along with 13 surface variables. By leveraging the inherent probabilistic nature of Variational AutoEncoder (VAE), FuXi-ENS optimizes a loss function that combines the CRPS and the KL divergence between the predicted and target distribution, facilitating the incorporation of flow-dependent perturbations in both initial conditions and forecast. This innovative approach makes FuXi-ENS an advancement over the traditional ones that use L1 loss combined with the KL loss in standard VAE models for ensemble weather forecasting. Results demonstrate that FuXi-ENS outperforms ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF, a world leading NWP model, in the CRPS of 98.1% of 360 variable and forecast lead time combinations. This achievement underscores the potential of the FuXi-ENS model to enhance ensemble weather forecasts, offering a promising direction for further development in this field.

It is widely recognized that deep learning models lack robustness to adversarial examples. An intriguing property of adversarial examples is that they can transfer across different models, which enables black-box attacks without any knowledge of the victim model. An effective strategy to improve the transferability is attacking an ensemble of models. However, previous works simply average the outputs of different models, lacking an in-depth analysis on how and why model ensemble methods can strongly improve the transferability. In this paper, we rethink the ensemble in adversarial attacks and define the common weakness of model ensemble with two properties: 1) the flatness of loss landscape; and 2) the closeness to the local optimum of each model. We empirically and theoretically show that both properties are strongly correlated with the transferability and propose a Common Weakness Attack (CWA) to generate more transferable adversarial examples by promoting these two properties. Experimental results on both image classification and object detection tasks validate the effectiveness of our approach to improving the adversarial transferability, especially when attacking adversarially trained models. We also successfully apply our method to attack a black-box large vision-language model -- Google's Bard, showing the practical effectiveness. Code is available at https://github.com/huanranchen/AdversarialAttacks.

Neural networks are very effective when trained on large datasets for a large number of iterations. However, when they are trained on non-stationary streams of data and in an online fashion, their performance is reduced (1) by the online setup, which limits the availability of data, (2) due to catastrophic forgetting because of the non-stationary nature of the data. Furthermore, several recent works (Caccia et al., 2022; Lange et al., 2023) arXiv:2205.13452 showed that replay methods used in continual learning suffer from the stability gap, encountered when evaluating the model continually (rather than only on task boundaries). In this article, we study the effect of model ensembling as a way to improve performance and stability in online continual learning. We notice that naively ensembling models coming from a variety of training tasks increases the performance in online continual learning considerably. Starting from this observation, and drawing inspirations from semi-supervised learning ensembling methods, we use a lightweight temporal ensemble that computes the exponential moving average of the weights (EMA) at test time, and show that it can drastically increase the performance and stability when used in combination with several methods from the literature.

Reinforcement learning has demonstrated great potential for performing financial tasks. However, it faces two major challenges: policy instability and sampling bottlenecks. In this paper, we revisit ensemble methods with massively parallel simulations on graphics processing units (GPUs), significantly enhancing the computational efficiency and robustness of trained models in volatile financial markets. Our approach leverages the parallel processing capability of GPUs to significantly improve the sampling speed for training ensemble models. The ensemble models combine the strengths of component agents to improve the robustness of financial decision-making strategies. We conduct experiments in both stock and cryptocurrency trading tasks to evaluate the effectiveness of our approach. Massively parallel simulation on a single GPU improves the sampling speed by up to 1,746times using 2,048 parallel environments compared to a single environment. The ensemble models have high cumulative returns and outperform some individual agents, reducing maximum drawdown by up to 4.17% and improving the Sharpe ratio by up to 0.21. This paper describes trading tasks at ACM ICAIF FinRL Contests in 2023 and 2024.

Ensembling neural networks is an effective way to increase accuracy, and can often match the performance of individual larger models. This observation poses a natural question: given the choice between a deep ensemble and a single neural network with similar accuracy, is one preferable over the other? Recent work suggests that deep ensembles may offer distinct benefits beyond predictive power: namely, uncertainty quantification and robustness to dataset shift. In this work, we demonstrate limitations to these purported benefits, and show that a single (but larger) neural network can replicate these qualities. First, we show that ensemble diversity, by any metric, does not meaningfully contribute to an ensemble's uncertainty quantification on out-of-distribution (OOD) data, but is instead highly correlated with the relative improvement of a single larger model. Second, we show that the OOD performance afforded by ensembles is strongly determined by their in-distribution (InD) performance, and -- in this sense -- is not indicative of any "effective robustness". While deep ensembles are a practical way to achieve improvements to predictive power, uncertainty quantification, and robustness, our results show that these improvements can be replicated by a (larger) single model.

Knowledge benchmarks for LLMs face three issues: scaling-driven designs that do not operationalize disciplinary representativeness; flat-payment annotation that permits lazy consensus; and unaudited ranking instability under bounded test budgets. We introduce KINA, an 899-item benchmark across 261 fine-grained disciplines, with two formal results. First, we cast representativeness as a coverage-style objective over expert-elicited anchors and operationalize disciplinary representativeness through a proxy, yielding a (1-1/e) greedy approximation (Proposition 1); the guarantee applies to the proxy, not to population representativeness. Second, we prove a bonus-on-bar tournament weakly FOSD-dominates flat payment in released-review quality, with incentive-compatibility threshold B > Delta C / Delta p_min (Theorem 1). Evaluating 42 models from 13 labs, the top model, Gemini-3.1-Pro-Preview, reaches 53.17%, followed by Claude-Opus-4.6 at 49.92% and GPT-5.4 at 48.55%, leaving substantial headroom below saturation. The full leaderboard shows a tiered structure rather than a smooth total order: a small frontier tier lies above 48%, a dense strong-model tier spans roughly 38-45%, and low-performing models remain only modestly above the 10% chance baseline. Tool augmentation adds up to 5.17 points across the five tool-use evaluations, with gains varying substantially across models. We report bootstrap ranking-stability statistics to make bounded-budget variance explicit and to discourage over-interpretation of adjacent ranks.

This study presents CORE-ReID V2, an enhanced framework building upon CORE-ReID. The new framework extends its predecessor by addressing Unsupervised Domain Adaptation (UDA) challenges in Person ReID and Vehicle ReID, with further applicability to Object ReID. During pre-training, CycleGAN is employed to synthesize diverse data, bridging image characteristic gaps across different domains. In the fine-tuning, an advanced ensemble fusion mechanism, consisting of the Efficient Channel Attention Block (ECAB) and the Simplified Efficient Channel Attention Block (SECAB), enhances both local and global feature representations while reducing ambiguity in pseudo-labels for target samples. Experimental results on widely used UDA Person ReID and Vehicle ReID datasets demonstrate that the proposed framework outperforms state-of-the-art methods, achieving top performance in Mean Average Precision (mAP) and Rank-k Accuracy (Top-1, Top-5, Top-10). Moreover, the framework supports lightweight backbones such as ResNet18 and ResNet34, ensuring both scalability and efficiency. Our work not only pushes the boundaries of UDA-based Object ReID but also provides a solid foundation for further research and advancements in this domain. Our codes and models are available at https://github.com/TrinhQuocNguyen/CORE-ReID-V2.

We present the findings of "The Alzheimer's Disease Prediction Of Longitudinal Evolution" (TADPOLE) Challenge, which compared the performance of 92 algorithms from 33 international teams at predicting the future trajectory of 219 individuals at risk of Alzheimer's disease. Challenge participants were required to make a prediction, for each month of a 5-year future time period, of three key outcomes: clinical diagnosis, Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale Cognitive Subdomain (ADAS-Cog13), and total volume of the ventricles. The methods used by challenge participants included multivariate linear regression, machine learning methods such as support vector machines and deep neural networks, as well as disease progression models. No single submission was best at predicting all three outcomes. For clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume prediction, the best algorithms strongly outperform simple baselines in predictive ability. However, for ADAS-Cog13 no single submitted prediction method was significantly better than random guesswork. Two ensemble methods based on taking the mean and median over all predictions, obtained top scores on almost all tasks. Better than average performance at diagnosis prediction was generally associated with the additional inclusion of features from cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). On the other hand, better performance at ventricle volume prediction was associated with inclusion of summary statistics, such as the slope or maxima/minima of biomarkers. TADPOLE's unique results suggest that current prediction algorithms provide sufficient accuracy to exploit biomarkers related to clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume, for cohort refinement in clinical trials for Alzheimer's disease. However, results call into question the usage of cognitive test scores for patient selection and as a primary endpoint in clinical trials.

This paper provides an experimentally verified formal law for calculating the uplift that diversity of thought provides in Large Language Model (LLM) ensembles. From first principles, we derive an exact decomposition of LLM ensemble lift into rescue and damage masses, which yields a compact heuristic for calculating uplift. From this we extract the metrics which predict ensemble performance: an accuracy adjusted correctness correlation, ϕ_{adj}, together with the accuracy gap and collective accuracy of the pair. We test the law on 767,520 inferences from ten open-weight models over two graduate-level science benchmarks, together with a novel agentic cybersecurity benchmark in which each model conducts digital-forensics investigations by multi-turn tool use in a network-isolated sandbox (23,520 graded trials including abstentions); all votes are released openly. Calibrated once on SuperGPQA at a 40:60 vote split, the heuristic predicts lift on the calibration set with Spearman's ρ=0.84 and, with its coefficients frozen, transfers to two datasets never used in calibration (ρ=0.51 on GPQA Diamond and 0.84 on the forensic tasks), whilst the measured swap mass tracks realised lift with R^2ge 0.96 throughout. Raw ϕ has almost no predictive power (R^2le 0.09 throughout); the accuracy-adjusted ϕ_{adj} is markedly superior (R^2=0.67 on SuperGPQA), and the heuristic combining these metrics is the most stable pre pooling predictor across the three datasets.

A generative diffusion model is used to produce probabilistic ensembles of precipitation intensity maps at the 1-hour 5-km resolution. The generation is conditioned on infrared and microwave radiometric measurements from the GOES and DMSP satellites and is trained with merged ground radar and gauge data over southeastern United States. The generated precipitation maps reproduce the spatial autocovariance and other multiscale statistical properties of the gauge-radar reference fields on average. Conditioning the generation on the satellite measurements allows us to constrain the magnitude and location of each generated precipitation feature. The mean of the 128- member ensemble shows high spatial coherence with the reference fields with 0.82 linear correlation between the two. On average, the coherence between any two ensemble members is approximately the same as the coherence between any ensemble member and the ground reference, attesting that the ensemble dispersion is a proper measure of the estimation uncertainty. From the generated ensembles we can easily derive the probability of the precipitation intensity exceeding any given intensity threshold, at the 5-km resolution of the generation or at any desired aggregated resolution.

In this paper, we present an Adaptive Ensemble Learning framework that aims to boost the performance of deep neural networks by intelligently fusing features through ensemble learning techniques. The proposed framework integrates ensemble learning strategies with deep learning architectures to create a more robust and adaptable model capable of handling complex tasks across various domains. By leveraging intelligent feature fusion methods, the Adaptive Ensemble Learning framework generates more discriminative and effective feature representations, leading to improved model performance and generalization capabilities. We conducted extensive experiments and evaluations on several benchmark datasets, including image classification, object detection, natural language processing, and graph-based learning tasks. The results demonstrate that the proposed framework consistently outperforms baseline models and traditional feature fusion techniques, highlighting its effectiveness in enhancing deep learning models' performance. Furthermore, we provide insights into the impact of intelligent feature fusion on model performance and discuss the potential applications of the Adaptive Ensemble Learning framework in real-world scenarios. The paper also explores the design and implementation of adaptive ensemble models, ensemble training strategies, and meta-learning techniques, which contribute to the framework's versatility and adaptability. In conclusion, the Adaptive Ensemble Learning framework represents a significant advancement in the field of feature fusion and ensemble learning for deep neural networks, with the potential to transform a wide range of applications across multiple domains.

Continual learning with an increasing number of classes is a challenging task. The difficulty rises when each example is presented exactly once, which requires the model to learn online. Recent methods with classic parameter optimization procedures have been shown to struggle in such setups or have limitations like non-differentiable components or memory buffers. For this reason, we present the fully differentiable ensemble method that allows us to efficiently train an ensemble of neural networks in the end-to-end regime. The proposed technique achieves SOTA results without a memory buffer and clearly outperforms the reference methods. The conducted experiments have also shown a significant increase in the performance for small ensembles, which demonstrates the capability of obtaining relatively high classification accuracy with a reduced number of classifiers.

Standard neural networks struggle to generalize under distribution shifts in computer vision. Fortunately, combining multiple networks can consistently improve out-of-distribution generalization. In particular, weight averaging (WA) strategies were shown to perform best on the competitive DomainBed benchmark; they directly average the weights of multiple networks despite their nonlinearities. In this paper, we propose Diverse Weight Averaging (DiWA), a new WA strategy whose main motivation is to increase the functional diversity across averaged models. To this end, DiWA averages weights obtained from several independent training runs: indeed, models obtained from different runs are more diverse than those collected along a single run thanks to differences in hyperparameters and training procedures. We motivate the need for diversity by a new bias-variance-covariance-locality decomposition of the expected error, exploiting similarities between WA and standard functional ensembling. Moreover, this decomposition highlights that WA succeeds when the variance term dominates, which we show occurs when the marginal distribution changes at test time. Experimentally, DiWA consistently improves the state of the art on DomainBed without inference overhead.

This paper proposes a novel meta-learning approach to optimize a robust portfolio ensemble. The method uses a deep generative model to generate diverse and high-quality sub-portfolios combined to form the ensemble portfolio. The generative model consists of a convolutional layer, a stateful LSTM module, and a dense network. During training, the model takes a randomly sampled batch of Gaussian noise and outputs a population of solutions, which are then evaluated using the objective function of the problem. The weights of the model are updated using a gradient-based optimizer. The convolutional layer transforms the noise into a desired distribution in latent space, while the LSTM module adds dependence between generations. The dense network decodes the population of solutions. The proposed method balances maximizing the performance of the sub-portfolios with minimizing their maximum correlation, resulting in a robust ensemble portfolio against systematic shocks. The approach was effective in experiments where stochastic rewards were present. Moreover, the results (Fig. 1) demonstrated that the ensemble portfolio obtained by taking the average of the generated sub-portfolio weights was robust and generalized well. The proposed method can be applied to problems where diversity is desired among co-optimized solutions for a robust ensemble. The source-codes and the dataset are in the supplementary material.

LLM Ensemble -- which involves the comprehensive use of multiple large language models (LLMs), each aimed at handling user queries during downstream inference, to benefit from their individual strengths -- has gained substantial attention recently. The widespread availability of LLMs, coupled with their varying strengths and out-of-the-box usability, has profoundly advanced the field of LLM Ensemble. This paper presents the first systematic review of recent developments in LLM Ensemble. First, we introduce our taxonomy of LLM Ensemble and discuss several related research problems. Then, we provide a more in-depth classification of the methods under the broad categories of "ensemble-before-inference, ensemble-during-inference, ensemble-after-inference'', and review all relevant methods. Finally, we introduce related benchmarks and applications, summarize existing studies, and suggest several future research directions. A curated list of papers on LLM Ensemble is available at https://github.com/junchenzhi/Awesome-LLM-Ensemble.

The conventional recipe for maximizing model accuracy is to (1) train multiple models with various hyperparameters and (2) pick the individual model which performs best on a held-out validation set, discarding the remainder. In this paper, we revisit the second step of this procedure in the context of fine-tuning large pre-trained models, where fine-tuned models often appear to lie in a single low error basin. We show that averaging the weights of multiple models fine-tuned with different hyperparameter configurations often improves accuracy and robustness. Unlike a conventional ensemble, we may average many models without incurring any additional inference or memory costs -- we call the results "model soups." When fine-tuning large pre-trained models such as CLIP, ALIGN, and a ViT-G pre-trained on JFT, our soup recipe provides significant improvements over the best model in a hyperparameter sweep on ImageNet. The resulting ViT-G model, which attains 90.94% top-1 accuracy on ImageNet, achieved a new state of the art. Furthermore, we show that the model soup approach extends to multiple image classification and natural language processing tasks, improves out-of-distribution performance, and improves zero-shot performance on new downstream tasks. Finally, we analytically relate the performance similarity of weight-averaging and logit-ensembling to flatness of the loss and confidence of the predictions, and validate this relation empirically. Code is available at https://github.com/mlfoundations/model-soups.

Recent work has shown that models trained to the same objective, and which achieve similar measures of accuracy on consistent test data, may nonetheless behave very differently on individual predictions. This inconsistency is undesirable in high-stakes contexts, such as medical diagnosis and finance. We show that this inconsistent behavior extends beyond predictions to feature attributions, which may likewise have negative implications for the intelligibility of a model, and one's ability to find recourse for subjects. We then introduce selective ensembles to mitigate such inconsistencies by applying hypothesis testing to the predictions of a set of models trained using randomly-selected starting conditions; importantly, selective ensembles can abstain in cases where a consistent outcome cannot be achieved up to a specified confidence level. We prove that that prediction disagreement between selective ensembles is bounded, and empirically demonstrate that selective ensembles achieve consistent predictions and feature attributions while maintaining low abstention rates. On several benchmark datasets, selective ensembles reach zero inconsistently predicted points, with abstention rates as low 1.5%.

Numerous crucial tasks in real-world decision-making rely on machine learning algorithms with calibrated uncertainty estimates. However, modern methods often yield overconfident and uncalibrated predictions. Various approaches involve training an ensemble of separate models to quantify the uncertainty related to the model itself, known as epistemic uncertainty. In an explicit implementation, the ensemble approach has high computational cost and high memory requirements. This particular challenge is evident in state-of-the-art neural networks such as transformers, where even a single network is already demanding in terms of compute and memory. Consequently, efforts are made to emulate the ensemble model without actually instantiating separate ensemble members, referred to as implicit ensembling. We introduce LoRA-Ensemble, a parameter-efficient deep ensemble method for self-attention networks, which is based on Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA). Initially developed for efficient LLM fine-tuning, we extend LoRA to an implicit ensembling approach. By employing a single pre-trained self-attention network with weights shared across all members, we train member-specific low-rank matrices for the attention projections. Our method exhibits superior calibration compared to explicit ensembles and achieves similar or better accuracy across various prediction tasks and datasets.

Ensembles of independently trained neural networks are a state-of-the-art approach to estimate predictive uncertainty in Deep Learning, and can be interpreted as an approximation of the posterior distribution via a mixture of delta functions. The training of ensembles relies on non-convexity of the loss landscape and random initialization of their individual members, making the resulting posterior approximation uncontrolled. This paper proposes a novel and principled method to tackle this limitation, minimizing an f-divergence between the true posterior and a kernel density estimator (KDE) in a function space. We analyze this objective from a combinatorial point of view, and show that it is submodular with respect to mixture components for any f. Subsequently, we consider the problem of greedy ensemble construction. From the marginal gain on the negative f-divergence, which quantifies an improvement in posterior approximation yielded by adding a new component into the KDE, we derive a novel diversity term for ensemble methods. The performance of our approach is demonstrated on computer vision out-of-distribution detection benchmarks in a range of architectures trained on multiple datasets. The source code of our method is made publicly available at https://github.com/Oulu-IMEDS/greedy_ensembles_training.

Cloth-changing person re-identification (CC-ReID) is still very challenging, and no method clearly dominates: methods that lead on one benchmark collapse on the others, because they rest on different identity cues. We show that a general-purpose vision-language model (VLM), used zero-shot as a judge for reranking a short candidate list, beats the expert retrieval models it reranks by a wide and consistent margin. On the four scenarios of CHIRLA, a long-term CC-ReID benchmark that no publicly released Re-ID model is trained on, reranking the candidates of two frozen experts raises rank-1 on every scenario, by 12.9 points on average over the best expert and 9.4 over the best naive ensemble of the two, with no component fine-tuned on the target data. Merging both experts' shortlists matches or beats reranking the stronger expert's shortlist alone, at lower cost. Introducing a VLM does, however, come at a cost: almost all of the pipeline's FLOPs are spent on it. We therefore borrow a criterion from ensembling and invoke the VLM judge only where the two experts disagree at rank 1. This threshold-free gate removes 40% of the calls, and a comparable share of total compute, with no significant drop in rank-1, trading 1.8 to 3.8 points of mAP. Judging remains the dominant cost, but on a benchmark where dedicated experts stall, we find a frozen general-purpose model to be the strongest judge of identity. The code is available at https://github.com/bdager/JudgeReID.

We provide a concise framework for generalized ensemble theory through a matrix-based approach. By introducing an observation matrix, any discrete probability distribution, including those for non-equilibrium steady states, can be expressed as a generalized Boltzmann distribution, with observables and conjugate variables as the basis and coordinates in a linear space. In this framework, we identify the minimal sufficient statistics required for inferring the Boltzmann distribution. Furthermore, we show that the Hadamard and Vandermonde matrices are suitable observation matrices for spin systems and random walks. In master equation systems, the probability flux observation matrix facilitates the identification of detailed balance violations. Our findings provide a new approach to developing generalized ensemble theory for non-equilibrium steady-state systems.

Classic results establish that encouraging predictive diversity improves performance in ensembles of low-capacity models, e.g. through bagging or boosting. Here we demonstrate that these intuitions do not apply to high-capacity neural network ensembles (deep ensembles), and in fact the opposite is often true. In a large scale study of nearly 600 neural network classification ensembles, we examine a variety of interventions that trade off component model performance for predictive diversity. While such interventions can improve the performance of small neural network ensembles (in line with standard intuitions), they harm the performance of the large neural network ensembles most often used in practice. Surprisingly, we also find that discouraging predictive diversity is often benign in large-network ensembles, fully inverting standard intuitions. Even when diversity-promoting interventions do not sacrifice component model performance (e.g. using heterogeneous architectures and training paradigms), we observe an opportunity cost associated with pursuing increased predictive diversity. Examining over 1000 ensembles, we observe that the performance benefits of diverse architectures/training procedures are easily dwarfed by the benefits of simply using higher-capacity models, despite the fact that such higher capacity models often yield significantly less predictive diversity. Overall, our findings demonstrate that standard intuitions around predictive diversity, originally developed for low-capacity ensembles, do not directly apply to modern high-capacity deep ensembles. This work clarifies fundamental challenges to the goal of improving deep ensembles by making them more diverse, while suggesting an alternative path: simply forming ensembles from ever more powerful (and less diverse) component models.

In this work, we study an optimizer, Grad-Avg to optimize error functions. We establish the convergence of the sequence of iterates of Grad-Avg mathematically to a minimizer (under boundedness assumption). We apply Grad-Avg along with some of the popular optimizers on regression as well as classification tasks. In regression tasks, it is observed that the behaviour of Grad-Avg is almost identical with Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD). We present a mathematical justification of this fact. In case of classification tasks, it is observed that the performance of Grad-Avg can be enhanced by suitably scaling the parameters. Experimental results demonstrate that Grad-Avg converges faster than the other state-of-the-art optimizers for the classification task on two benchmark datasets.

One-shot Federated Learning (OFL) has become a promising learning paradigm, enabling the training of a global server model via a single communication round. In OFL, the server model is aggregated by distilling knowledge from all client models (the ensemble), which are also responsible for synthesizing samples for distillation. In this regard, advanced works show that the performance of the server model is intrinsically related to the quality of the synthesized data and the ensemble model. To promote OFL, we introduce a novel framework, Co-Boosting, in which synthesized data and the ensemble model mutually enhance each other progressively. Specifically, Co-Boosting leverages the current ensemble model to synthesize higher-quality samples in an adversarial manner. These hard samples are then employed to promote the quality of the ensemble model by adjusting the ensembling weights for each client model. Consequently, Co-Boosting periodically achieves high-quality data and ensemble models. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Co-Boosting can substantially outperform existing baselines under various settings. Moreover, Co-Boosting eliminates the need for adjustments to the client's local training, requires no additional data or model transmission, and allows client models to have heterogeneous architectures.

Despite their remarkable effectiveness and broad application, the drivers of success underlying ensembles of trees are still not fully understood. In this paper, we highlight how interpreting tree ensembles as adaptive and self-regularizing smoothers can provide new intuition and deeper insight to this topic. We use this perspective to show that, when studied as smoothers, randomized tree ensembles not only make predictions that are quantifiably more smooth than the predictions of the individual trees they consist of, but also further regulate their smoothness at test-time based on the dissimilarity between testing and training inputs. First, we use this insight to revisit, refine and reconcile two recent explanations of forest success by providing a new way of quantifying the conjectured behaviors of tree ensembles objectively by measuring the effective degree of smoothing they imply. Then, we move beyond existing explanations for the mechanisms by which tree ensembles improve upon individual trees and challenge the popular wisdom that the superior performance of forests should be understood as a consequence of variance reduction alone. We argue that the current high-level dichotomy into bias- and variance-reduction prevalent in statistics is insufficient to understand tree ensembles -- because the prevailing definition of bias does not capture differences in the expressivity of the hypothesis classes formed by trees and forests. Instead, we show that forests can improve upon trees by three distinct mechanisms that are usually implicitly entangled. In particular, we demonstrate that the smoothing effect of ensembling can reduce variance in predictions due to noise in outcome generation, reduce variability in the quality of the learned function given fixed input data and reduce potential bias in learnable functions by enriching the available hypothesis space.

Training dense LLMs requires enormous amounts of data and centralized compute, which introduces fundamental bottlenecks and ever-growing costs for large models. Several studies aim to reduce this dependency on centralization by reducing the communication overhead of training dense models. Taking this idea of reducing communication overhead to a natural extreme, by training embarrassingly parallelizable ensembles of small independent experts, has been shown to outperform large dense models trained in traditional centralized settings. However, existing studies do not take into account underlying differences amongst data domains and treat them as monolithic, regardless of their underlying complexity, size, or distribution. In this paper, we explore the effects of introducing heterogeneity to these ensembles of domain expert models. Specifically, by allowing models within the ensemble to vary in size--as well as the number of training steps taken depending on the training data's domain--we study the effect heterogeneity has on these ensembles when evaluated against domains included in, and excluded from, the training set. We use the same compute budget to train heterogeneous ensembles and homogeneous baselines for comparison. We show that the heterogeneous ensembles achieve the lowest perplexity scores in 20 out of the 21 data domains used in the evaluation. Our code is available at https://github.com/gensyn-ai/hdee.

Stacking is a widely used model averaging technique that asymptotically yields optimal predictions among linear averages. We show that stacking is most effective when model predictive performance is heterogeneous in inputs, and we can further improve the stacked mixture with a hierarchical model. We generalize stacking to Bayesian hierarchical stacking. The model weights are varying as a function of data, partially-pooled, and inferred using Bayesian inference. We further incorporate discrete and continuous inputs, other structured priors, and time series and longitudinal data. To verify the performance gain of the proposed method, we derive theory bounds, and demonstrate on several applied problems.

We explore diverse representations of speech audio, and their effect on a performance of late fusion ensemble of E-Branchformer models, applied to Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) task. Although it is generally known that ensemble methods often improve the performance of the system even for speech recognition, it is very interesting to explore how ensembles of complex state-of-the-art models, such as medium-sized and large E-Branchformers, cope in this setting when their base models are trained on diverse representations of the input speech audio. The results are evaluated on four widely-used benchmark datasets: Librispeech, Aishell, Gigaspeech, TEDLIUMv2 and show that improvements of 1% - 14% can still be achieved over the state-of-the-art models trained using comparable techniques on these datasets. A noteworthy observation is that such ensemble offers improvements even with the use of language models, although the gap is closing.

Despite the success of deep learning for text and image data, tree-based ensemble models are still state-of-the-art for machine learning with heterogeneous tabular data. However, there is a significant need for tabular-specific gradient-based methods due to their high flexibility. In this paper, we propose GRANDE, GRAdieNt-Based Decision Tree Ensembles, a novel approach for learning hard, axis-aligned decision tree ensembles using end-to-end gradient descent. GRANDE is based on a dense representation of tree ensembles, which affords to use backpropagation with a straight-through operator to jointly optimize all model parameters. Our method combines axis-aligned splits, which is a useful inductive bias for tabular data, with the flexibility of gradient-based optimization. Furthermore, we introduce an advanced instance-wise weighting that facilitates learning representations for both, simple and complex relations, within a single model. We conducted an extensive evaluation on a predefined benchmark with 19 classification datasets and demonstrate that our method outperforms existing gradient-boosting and deep learning frameworks on most datasets. The method is available under: https://github.com/s-marton/GRANDE

Progress in machine learning is measured by careful evaluation on problems of outstanding common interest. However, the proliferation of benchmark suites and environments, adversarial attacks, and other complications has diluted the basic evaluation model by overwhelming researchers with choices. Deliberate or accidental cherry picking is increasingly likely, and designing well-balanced evaluation suites requires increasing effort. In this paper we take a step back and propose Nash averaging. The approach builds on a detailed analysis of the algebraic structure of evaluation in two basic scenarios: agent-vs-agent and agent-vs-task. The key strength of Nash averaging is that it automatically adapts to redundancies in evaluation data, so that results are not biased by the incorporation of easy tasks or weak agents. Nash averaging thus encourages maximally inclusive evaluation -- since there is no harm (computational cost aside) from including all available tasks and agents.

Machine learning (ML)-based weather models have rapidly risen to prominence due to their greater accuracy and speed than traditional forecasts based on numerical weather prediction (NWP), recently outperforming traditional ensembles in global probabilistic weather forecasting. This paper presents FGN, a simple, scalable and flexible modeling approach which significantly outperforms the current state-of-the-art models. FGN generates ensembles via learned model-perturbations with an ensemble of appropriately constrained models. It is trained directly to minimize the continuous rank probability score (CRPS) of per-location forecasts. It produces state-of-the-art ensemble forecasts as measured by a range of deterministic and probabilistic metrics, makes skillful ensemble tropical cyclone track predictions, and captures joint spatial structure despite being trained only on marginals.

In recent years, diffusion models have emerged as powerful tools for generating ensemble members in meteorology. In this work, we demonstrate that a Denoising Diffusion Implicit Model (DDIM) can effectively control ensemble variance by varying the number of diffusion steps. Introducing a theoretical framework, we relate diffusion steps to the variance expressed by the reverse diffusion process. Focusing on reanalysis downscaling, we propose an ensemble diffusion model for the full ERA5-to-CERRA domain, generating variance-calibrated ensemble members for wind speed at full spatial and temporal resolution. Our method aligns global mean variance with a reference ensemble dataset and ensures spatial variance is distributed in accordance with observed meteorological variability. Additionally, we address the lack of ensemble information in the CARRA dataset, showcasing the utility of our approach for efficient, high-resolution ensemble generation.

Diffusion-weighted MRI (DWI) is essential for stroke diagnosis, treatment decisions, and prognosis. However, image and disease variability hinder the development of generalizable AI algorithms with clinical value. We address this gap by presenting a novel ensemble algorithm derived from the 2022 Ischemic Stroke Lesion Segmentation (ISLES) challenge. ISLES'22 provided 400 patient scans with ischemic stroke from various medical centers, facilitating the development of a wide range of cutting-edge segmentation algorithms by the research community. Through collaboration with leading teams, we combined top-performing algorithms into an ensemble model that overcomes the limitations of individual solutions. Our ensemble model achieved superior ischemic lesion detection and segmentation accuracy on our internal test set compared to individual algorithms. This accuracy generalized well across diverse image and disease variables. Furthermore, the model excelled in extracting clinical biomarkers. Notably, in a Turing-like test, neuroradiologists consistently preferred the algorithm's segmentations over manual expert efforts, highlighting increased comprehensiveness and precision. Validation using a real-world external dataset (N=1686) confirmed the model's generalizability. The algorithm's outputs also demonstrated strong correlations with clinical scores (admission NIHSS and 90-day mRS) on par with or exceeding expert-derived results, underlining its clinical relevance. This study offers two key findings. First, we present an ensemble algorithm (https://github.com/Tabrisrei/ISLES22_Ensemble) that detects and segments ischemic stroke lesions on DWI across diverse scenarios on par with expert (neuro)radiologists. Second, we show the potential for biomedical challenge outputs to extend beyond the challenge's initial objectives, demonstrating their real-world clinical applicability.

We analyse linear ensemble sampling (ES) with standard Gaussian perturbations in stochastic linear bandits. We show that for ensemble size m=Θ(dlog n), ES attains tilde O(d^{3/2}sqrt n) high-probability regret, closing the gap to the Thompson sampling benchmark while keeping computation comparable. The proof brings a new perspective on randomized exploration in linear bandits by reducing the analysis to a time-uniform exceedance problem for m independent Brownian motions. Intriguingly, this continuous-time lens is not forced; it appears natural--and perhaps necessary: the discrete-time problem seems to be asking for a continuous-time solution, and we know of no other way to obtain a sharp ES bound.

Different large language models (LLMs) exhibit diverse strengths and weaknesses, and LLM ensemble serves as a promising approach to integrate their complementary capabilities. Despite substantial progress in improving ensemble quality, limited attention has been paid to the robustness of ensembles against potential erroneous signals, which often arise from heterogeneous tokenization schemes and varying model expertise. Our analysis shows that ensemble failures typically arise from both the token level and the model level: the former reflects severe disagreement in token predictions, while the latter involves low confidence and pronounced disparities among models. In light of this, we propose CoRE, a plug-and-play technique that harnesses model consistency for robust LLM ensemble, which can be seamlessly integrated with diverse ensemble methods. Token-level consistency captures fine-grained disagreements by applying a low-pass filter to downweight uncertain tokens with high inconsistency, often due to token misalignment, thereby improving robustness at a granular level. Model-level consistency models global agreement by promoting model outputs with high self-confidence and minimal divergence from others, enhancing robustness at a coarser level. Extensive experiments across diverse benchmarks, model combinations, and ensemble strategies demonstrate that CoRE consistently improves ensemble performance and robustness.

This paper studies ensembling in the era of Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs). Ensembling is a classical method to combine different models to get increased performance. In the recent work on Encyclopedic-VQA the authors examine a wide variety of models to solve their task: from vanilla LVLMs, to models including the caption as extra context, to models augmented with Lens-based retrieval of Wikipedia pages. Intuitively these models are highly complementary, which should make them ideal for ensembling. Indeed, an oracle experiment shows potential gains from 48.8% accuracy (the best single model) all the way up to 67% (best possible ensemble). So it is a trivial exercise to create an ensemble with substantial real gains. Or is it?

Machine learning classification tasks often benefit from predicting a set of possible labels with confidence scores to capture uncertainty. However, existing methods struggle with the high-dimensional nature of the data and the lack of well-calibrated probabilities from modern classification models. We propose a novel conformal prediction method that employs a rank-based score function suitable for classification models that predict the order of labels correctly, even if not well-calibrated. Our approach constructs prediction sets that achieve the desired coverage rate while managing their size. We provide a theoretical analysis of the expected size of the conformal prediction sets based on the rank distribution of the underlying classifier. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that our method outperforms existing techniques on various datasets, providing reliable uncertainty quantification. Our contributions include a novel conformal prediction method, theoretical analysis, and empirical evaluation. This work advances the practical deployment of machine learning systems by enabling reliable uncertainty quantification.

Despite remarkable progress achieved, most neural architecture search (NAS) methods focus on searching for one single accurate and robust architecture. To further build models with better generalization capability and performance, model ensemble is usually adopted and performs better than stand-alone models. Inspired by the merits of model ensemble, we propose to search for multiple diverse models simultaneously as an alternative way to find powerful models. Searching for ensembles is non-trivial and has two key challenges: enlarged search space and potentially more complexity for the searched model. In this paper, we propose a one-shot neural ensemble architecture search (NEAS) solution that addresses the two challenges. For the first challenge, we introduce a novel diversity-based metric to guide search space shrinking, considering both the potentiality and diversity of candidate operators. For the second challenge, we enable a new search dimension to learn layer sharing among different models for efficiency purposes. The experiments on ImageNet clearly demonstrate that our solution can improve the supernet's capacity of ranking ensemble architectures, and further lead to better search results. The discovered architectures achieve superior performance compared with state-of-the-arts such as MobileNetV3 and EfficientNet families under aligned settings. Moreover, we evaluate the generalization ability and robustness of our searched architecture on the COCO detection benchmark and achieve a 3.1% improvement on AP compared with MobileNetV3. Codes and models are available at https://github.com/researchmm/NEAS.

One of the guiding principles for designing AI-based weather forecasting systems is to embed physical constraints as inductive priors in the neural network architecture. A popular prior is locality, where the atmospheric data is processed with local neural interactions, like 3D convolutions or 3D local attention windows as in Pangu-Weather. On the other hand, some works have shown great success in weather forecasting without this locality principle, at the cost of a much higher parameter count. In this paper, we show that the 3D local processing in Pangu-Weather is computationally sub-optimal. We design ArchesWeather, a transformer model that combines 2D attention with a column-wise attention-based feature interaction module, and demonstrate that this design improves forecasting skill. ArchesWeather is trained at 1.5° resolution and 24h lead time, with a training budget of a few GPU-days and a lower inference cost than competing methods. An ensemble of four of our models shows better RMSE scores than the IFS HRES and is competitive with the 1.4° 50-members NeuralGCM ensemble for one to three days ahead forecasting. Our code and models are publicly available at https://github.com/gcouairon/ArchesWeather.

Recent advances in foundation models have shown great promise in domains such as natural language processing and computer vision, and similar efforts are now emerging in the Earth Observation community. These models aim to generalize across tasks with limited supervision, reducing the need for training separate models for each task. However, current strategies, which largely focus on scaling model size and dataset volume, require prohibitive computational and data resources, limiting accessibility to only a few large institutions. Moreover, this paradigm of ever-larger models stands in stark contrast with the principles of sustainable and environmentally responsible AI, as it leads to immense carbon footprints and resource inefficiency. In this work, we present a novel and efficient alternative: an Ensemble-of-Specialists framework for building Remote Sensing Foundation Models (RSFMs). Our method decomposes the training process into lightweight, task-specific ConvNeXtV2 specialists that can be frozen and reused. This modular approach offers strong advantages in efficiency, interpretability, and extensibility. Moreover, it naturally supports federated training, pruning, and continuous specialist integration, making it particularly well-suited for collaborative and resource-constrained settings. Our framework sets a new direction for building scalable and efficient RSFMs. All codes and pretrained models are available at https://github.com/pierreadorni/EoS-FM.

This paper establishes time-uniform accuracy guarantees for deterministic square-root ensemble Kalman filters in linear--Gaussian state-space models under perfect-model dynamics. For hyperbolic, detectable systems, we prove that the ensemble means and covariances approximate their Kalman filter counterparts uniformly in time, with high probability and without inflation or resampling. The required ensemble size depends on the effective rank of the initial covariance and the dimension of the unstable subspace, rather than on the ambient state dimension. We also analyze a localized square-root ensemble Kalman filter for weakly coupled spatial systems. We show that the stabilizing Kalman covariance inherits spatial decay from the dynamics and derive accuracy bounds that separate sampling error from localization bias. For the localized filter, the required ensemble size depends on the local intrinsic dimension and only logarithmically on the number of spatial blocks, while the localization bias scales with the interaction strength. Our analysis combines stability and forgetting for possibly singular Riccati recursions, nonasymptotic covariance concentration, and perturbation estimates for localized covariance dynamics.

Deep neural networks are powerful predictors for a variety of tasks. However, they do not capture uncertainty directly. Using neural network ensembles to quantify uncertainty is competitive with approaches based on Bayesian neural networks while benefiting from better computational scalability. However, building ensembles of neural networks is a challenging task because, in addition to choosing the right neural architecture or hyperparameters for each member of the ensemble, there is an added cost of training each model. We propose AutoDEUQ, an automated approach for generating an ensemble of deep neural networks. Our approach leverages joint neural architecture and hyperparameter search to generate ensembles. We use the law of total variance to decompose the predictive variance of deep ensembles into aleatoric (data) and epistemic (model) uncertainties. We show that AutoDEUQ outperforms probabilistic backpropagation, Monte Carlo dropout, deep ensemble, distribution-free ensembles, and hyper ensemble methods on a number of regression benchmarks.

Accurate prediction of extreme weather events remains a major challenge for artificial intelligence-based weather prediction systems. While deterministic models such as FuXi, GraphCast, and SFNO have achieved competitive forecast skill relative to numerical weather prediction, their ability to represent uncertainty and capture extremes is still limited. This study investigates how state-of-the-art deterministic artificial intelligence-based models respond to initial-condition perturbations and evaluates the resulting ensembles in forecasting extremes. Using four perturbation strategies (Gaussian, Perlin noise, Hemispheric Centered Bred Vectors, and Huge Ensembles), we generate 50 member ensembles for the August 2022 Pakistan floods and China heatwave, and complement these case studies with a global threshold-based evaluation. Ensemble skill is assessed against ERA5 and compared with IFS ENS and the AIFS ENS probabilistic model using deterministic and probabilistic metrics. Results show that simpler perturbations like Gaussian and Perlin noise produce similarly realistic ensemble spread and probabilistic skill as flow-based approaches like HCBV and HENS, narrowing but not closing the performance gap with numerical weather prediction ensembles, or native probabilistic models which retain the highest probabilistic skill across variables. Model choice is the dominant factor for ensemble performance, not perturbation method. Across variables, models capture temperature extremes more effectively than precipitation. These findings demonstrate that simple input perturbations can extend deterministic models toward probabilistic forecasting in hardware-constrained settings, supporting artificial intelligence-driven early warning systems.

We employ random matrix theory to establish consistency of generalized cross validation (GCV) for estimating prediction risks of sketched ridge regression ensembles, enabling efficient and consistent tuning of regularization and sketching parameters. Our results hold for a broad class of asymptotically free sketches under very mild data assumptions. For squared prediction risk, we provide a decomposition into an unsketched equivalent implicit ridge bias and a sketching-based variance, and prove that the risk can be globally optimized by only tuning sketch size in infinite ensembles. For general subquadratic prediction risk functionals, we extend GCV to construct consistent risk estimators, and thereby obtain distributional convergence of the GCV-corrected predictions in Wasserstein-2 metric. This in particular allows construction of prediction intervals with asymptotically correct coverage conditional on the training data. We also propose an "ensemble trick" whereby the risk for unsketched ridge regression can be efficiently estimated via GCV using small sketched ridge ensembles. We empirically validate our theoretical results using both synthetic and real large-scale datasets with practical sketches including CountSketch and subsampled randomized discrete cosine transforms.

We introduce Mosaic, a probabilistic weather forecasting model that addresses two distinct failure modes of spectral degradation in ML-based weather prediction: (1) spectral damping caused by deterministic training against ensemble means; and (2) aliasing artifacts caused by compressive encoding onto a coarse latent grid. Mosaic generates ensemble members through learned functional perturbations and operates on native-resolution grids via mesh-aligned block-sparse attention, a hardware-aligned mechanism that captures long-range dependencies at linear cost by sharing keys and values across spatially adjacent queries. At 1.5° resolution with 214M parameters, Mosaic matches or outperforms models trained on 6times finer resolution on key variables and achieves state-of-the-art results among 1.5° models, producing well-calibrated ensembles whose individual members exhibit near-perfect spectral alignment across all resolved frequencies. A 24-member, 10-day forecast takes under 12\,s on a single H100~GPU. Code is available at https://github.com/maxxxzdn/mosaic.

Diagnosing 802.11 packet captures requires expert protocol knowledge, is slow, inconsistent across engineers, and unscalable. LLM-based approaches sound plausible but fabricate protocol events absent from captures (especially truncated traces), produce uncalibrated confidence scores, and suffer evaluation bias when golden references are co-produced by the model under test. We introduce PROBE (Protocol Reasoning Over evidence-Based Ensembles), a multi-stage pipeline addressing all three failures. It integrates (i) deterministic PCAP-to-text normalization with frame-level verifiability, (ii) multi-run, multi-candidate ensembles with optional cross-model second opinion and progressive obfuscation, (iii) a verdict-aware evidence framework treating absence of failure evidence as contributing evidence, and (iv) a fully deterministic composite reliability score from evidence validity, run-to-run stability, and cross-model agreement without LLM self-assessment. On 87 enterprise Wi-Fi captures (104 capture-reviewer pairs), single-pass LLM analysis raises weighted evidence F1 from 0.871 (expert baseline) to 0.912 but misses critical frames in 35% of cases. Naive ensemble voting drops below baseline (0.842) as majority voting amplifies conservative verdicts: 50% of confirmed failures are misclassified as 'no issue' or 'insufficient evidence.' Adding evidence-grounded reconciliation achieves 0.957 F1, a 96% auto-accept rate, and a worst-case floor above 0.70. LLM self-reported confidence clusters at 0.95 regardless of difficulty (71% report exactly 0.95), confirming it is uninformative. We also introduce a model-agnostic evaluation framework using per-field assertion matching, eliminating circular bias from model-co-produced golden references.

Audio tagging is an active research area and has a wide range of applications. Since the release of AudioSet, great progress has been made in advancing model performance, which mostly comes from the development of novel model architectures and attention modules. However, we find that appropriate training techniques are equally important for building audio tagging models with AudioSet, but have not received the attention they deserve. To fill the gap, in this work, we present PSLA, a collection of training techniques that can noticeably boost the model accuracy including ImageNet pretraining, balanced sampling, data augmentation, label enhancement, model aggregation and their design choices. By training an EfficientNet with these techniques, we obtain a single model (with 13.6M parameters) and an ensemble model that achieve mean average precision (mAP) scores of 0.444 and 0.474 on AudioSet, respectively, outperforming the previous best system of 0.439 with 81M parameters. In addition, our model also achieves a new state-of-the-art mAP of 0.567 on FSD50K.

Deep ensembles are capable of achieving state-of-the-art results in classification and out-of-distribution (OOD) detection. However, their effectiveness is limited due to the homogeneity of learned patterns within ensembles. To overcome this issue, our study introduces Saliency Diversified Deep Ensemble (SDDE), a novel approach that promotes diversity among ensemble members by leveraging saliency maps. Through incorporating saliency map diversification, our method outperforms conventional ensemble techniques and improves calibration in multiple classification and OOD detection tasks. In particular, the proposed method achieves state-of-the-art OOD detection quality, calibration, and accuracy on multiple benchmarks, including CIFAR10/100 and large-scale ImageNet datasets.

This paper introduces an efficient fine-tuning method for large pre-trained models, offering strong in-distribution (ID) and out-of-distribution (OOD) performance. Breaking away from traditional practices that need a multitude of fine-tuned models for averaging, our approach employs significantly fewer models to achieve final weights yet yield superior accuracy. Drawing from key insights in the weight space of fine-tuned weights, we uncover a strong link between the performance and proximity to the center of weight space. Based on this, we introduce a method that approximates a center-close weight using only two fine-tuned models, applicable during or after training. Our innovative layer-wise weight averaging technique surpasses state-of-the-art model methods such as Model Soup, utilizing only two fine-tuned models. This strategy can be aptly coined Model Stock, highlighting its reliance on selecting a minimal number of models to draw a more optimized-averaged model. We demonstrate the efficacy of Model Stock with fine-tuned models based upon pre-trained CLIP architectures, achieving remarkable performance on both ID and OOD tasks on the standard benchmarks, all while barely bringing extra computational demands. Our code and pre-trained models are available at https://github.com/naver-ai/model-stock.

Skid-steered wheel mobile robots (SSWMRs) are characterized by the unique domination of the tire-terrain skidding for the robot to move. The lack of reliable friction models cascade into unreliable motion models, especially the reduced ordered variants used for state estimation and robot control. Ensemble modeling is an emerging research direction where the overall motion model is broken down into a family of local models to distribute the performance and resource requirement and provide a fast real-time prediction. To this end, a gaussian mixture model based modeling identification of model clusters is adopted and implemented within an interactive multiple model (IMM) based state estimation. The framework is adopted and implemented for angular velocity as the estimated state for a mid scaled skid-steered wheel mobile robot platform.

We introduce a rank-statistic approximation of f-divergences that avoids explicit density-ratio estimation by working directly with the distribution of ranks. For a resolution parameter K, we map the mismatch between two univariate distributions μ and ν to a rank histogram on { 0, ldots, K} and measure its deviation from uniformity via a discrete f-divergence, yielding a rank-statistic divergence estimator. We prove that the resulting estimator of the divergence is monotone in K, is always a lower bound of the true f-divergence, and we establish quantitative convergence rates for Ktoinfty under mild regularity of the quantile-domain density ratio. To handle high-dimensional data, we define the sliced rank-statistic f-divergence by averaging the univariate construction over random projections, and we provide convergence results for the sliced limit as well. We also derive finite-sample deviation bounds along with asymptotic normality results for the estimator. Finally, we empirically validate the approach by benchmarking against neural baselines and illustrating its use as a learning objective in generative modeling experiments.

Localized extreme precipitation is a major trigger of urban flash floods and landslides, yet producing nowcasts that combine fine spatial detail with probabilistic uncertainty remains challenging. Here we introduce exPreCast-ENS, a conditional residual diffusion framework that transforms the deterministic 4 km radar nowcaster exPreCast into a 1 km probabilistic ensemble while correcting systematic forecast errors. Conditioning on both the forecast and preceding radar observations lets the ensemble-mean correct the baseline rather than perturb it, while members represent unresolved fine-scale variability. Over the Korean Peninsula, skill improves with ensemble size. In two high-impact events in 2023, a 30-member ensemble recovers 38-47% of heavy-rain pixels missed by exPreCast while retaining approximately 95% of its correct detections and alarming on under 1% of the pixels it correctly left clear. The method generates a 1-h forecast in 3.4 s on a single GPU and yields consistent improvements on the French regional MeteoNet radar dataset.

We address unsupervised discontinuous constituency parsing, where we observe a high variance in the performance of the only previous model. We propose to build an ensemble of different runs of the existing discontinuous parser by averaging the predicted trees, to stabilize and boost performance. To begin with, we provide comprehensive computational complexity analysis (in terms of P and NP-complete) for tree averaging under different setups of binarity and continuity. We then develop an efficient exact algorithm to tackle the task, which runs in a reasonable time for all samples in our experiments. Results on three datasets show our method outperforms all baselines in all metrics; we also provide in-depth analyses of our approach.

Few-shot object detection (FSOD) is challenging due to unstable optimization and limited generalization arising from the scarcity of training samples. To address these issues, we propose a hybrid ensemble decoder that enhances generalization during fine-tuning. Inspired by ensemble learning, the decoder comprises a shared hierarchical layer followed by multiple parallel decoder branches, where each branch employs denoising queries either inherited from the shared layer or newly initialized to encourage prediction diversity. This design fully exploits pretrained weights without introducing additional parameters, and the resulting diverse predictions can be effectively ensembled to improve generalization. We further leverage a unified progressive fine-tuning framework with a plateau-aware learning rate schedule, which stabilizes optimization and achieves strong few-shot adaptation without complex data augmentations or extensive hyperparameter tuning. Extensive experiments on CD-FSOD, ODinW-13, and RF100-VL validate the effectiveness of our approach. Notably, on RF100-VL, which includes 100 datasets across diverse domains, our method achieves an average performance of 41.9 in the 10-shot setting, significantly outperforming the recent approach SAM3, which obtains 35.7. We further construct a mixed-domain test set from CD-FSOD to evaluate robustness to out-of-distribution (OOD) samples, showing that our proposed modules lead to clear improvement gains. These results highlight the effectiveness, generalization, and robustness of the proposed method. Code is available at: https://github.com/Intellindust-AI-Lab/FT-FSOD.

Bootstrap aggregating (bagging) is an effective ensemble protocol, which is believed can enhance robustness by its majority voting mechanism. Recent works further prove the sample-wise robustness certificates for certain forms of bagging (e.g. partition aggregation). Beyond these particular forms, in this paper, we propose the first collective certification for general bagging to compute the tight robustness against the global poisoning attack. Specifically, we compute the maximum number of simultaneously changed predictions via solving a binary integer linear programming (BILP) problem. Then we analyze the robustness of vanilla bagging and give the upper bound of the tolerable poison budget. Based on this analysis, we propose hash bagging to improve the robustness of vanilla bagging almost for free. This is achieved by modifying the random subsampling in vanilla bagging to a hash-based deterministic subsampling, as a way of controlling the influence scope for each poisoning sample universally. Our extensive experiments show the notable advantage in terms of applicability and robustness.

We study subsampling-based ridge ensembles in the proportional asymptotics regime, where the feature size grows proportionally with the sample size such that their ratio converges to a constant. By analyzing the squared prediction risk of ridge ensembles as a function of the explicit penalty lambda and the limiting subsample aspect ratio phi_s (the ratio of the feature size to the subsample size), we characterize contours in the (lambda, phi_s)-plane at any achievable risk. As a consequence, we prove that the risk of the optimal full ridgeless ensemble (fitted on all possible subsamples) matches that of the optimal ridge predictor. In addition, we prove strong uniform consistency of generalized cross-validation (GCV) over the subsample sizes for estimating the prediction risk of ridge ensembles. This allows for GCV-based tuning of full ridgeless ensembles without sample splitting and yields a predictor whose risk matches optimal ridge risk.

Large language models demonstrate a remarkable capability for learning to solve new tasks from a few examples. The prompt template, or the way the input examples are formatted to obtain the prompt, is an important yet often overlooked aspect of in-context learning. In this work, we conduct a comprehensive study of the template format's influence on the in-context learning performance. We evaluate the impact of the prompt template across models (from 770M to 70B parameters) and 4 standard classification datasets. We show that a poor choice of the template can reduce the performance of the strongest models and inference methods to a random guess level. More importantly, the best templates do not transfer between different setups and even between models of the same family. Our findings show that the currently prevalent approach to evaluation, which ignores template selection, may give misleading results due to different templates in different works. As a first step towards mitigating this issue, we propose Template Ensembles that aggregate model predictions across several templates. This simple test-time augmentation boosts average performance while being robust to the choice of random set of templates.

Ensembles of neural network weight matrices are studied through the training process for the MNIST classification problem, testing the efficacy of matrix models for representing their distributions, under assumptions of Gaussianity and permutation-symmetry. The general 13-parameter permutation invariant Gaussian matrix models are found to be effective models for the correlated Gaussianity in the weight matrices, beyond the range of applicability of the simple Gaussian with independent identically distributed matrix variables, and notably well beyond the initialisation step. The representation theoretic model parameters, and the graph-theoretic characterisation of the permutation invariant matrix observables give an interpretable framework for the best-fit model and for small departures from Gaussianity. Additionally, the Wasserstein distance is calculated for this class of models and used to quantify the movement of the distributions over training. Throughout the work, the effects of varied initialisation regimes, regularisation, layer depth, and layer width are tested for this formalism, identifying limits where particular departures from Gaussianity are enhanced and how more general, yet still highly-interpretable, models can be developed.

Ensembling Large Language Models (LLMs) has gained attention as a promising approach to surpass the performance of individual models by leveraging their complementary strengths. In particular, aggregating models' next-token probability distributions to select the next token has been shown to be effective in various tasks. However, while successful for short-form answers, its application to long-form generation remains underexplored. In this paper, we show that using existing ensemble methods in long-form generation requires a careful choice of ensembling positions, since the standard practice of ensembling at every token often degrades performance. We identify two key factors for determining these positions: tokenization mismatch across models and consensus in their next-token probability distributions. Based on this, we propose SAFE, (Stable And Fast LLM Ensembling), a framework that selectively ensembles by jointly considering these factors. To further improve stability, we introduce a probability sharpening strategy that consolidates probabilities spread across multiple sub-word tokens representing the same word into a single representative token. Our experiments on diverse benchmarks, including MATH500 and BBH, demonstrate that SAFE outperforms existing methods in both accuracy and efficiency, with gains achieved even when ensembling fewer than 1% of tokens.

The recently proposed Temporal Ensembling has achieved state-of-the-art results in several semi-supervised learning benchmarks. It maintains an exponential moving average of label predictions on each training example, and penalizes predictions that are inconsistent with this target. However, because the targets change only once per epoch, Temporal Ensembling becomes unwieldy when learning large datasets. To overcome this problem, we propose Mean Teacher, a method that averages model weights instead of label predictions. As an additional benefit, Mean Teacher improves test accuracy and enables training with fewer labels than Temporal Ensembling. Without changing the network architecture, Mean Teacher achieves an error rate of 4.35% on SVHN with 250 labels, outperforming Temporal Ensembling trained with 1000 labels. We also show that a good network architecture is crucial to performance. Combining Mean Teacher and Residual Networks, we improve the state of the art on CIFAR-10 with 4000 labels from 10.55% to 6.28%, and on ImageNet 2012 with 10% of the labels from 35.24% to 9.11%.

It is well known that ensemble methods often provide enhanced performance in reinforcement learning. In this paper, we explore this concept further by using group-aided training within the distributional reinforcement learning paradigm. Specifically, we propose an extension to categorical reinforcement learning, where distributional learning targets are implicitly based on the total information gathered by an ensemble. We empirically show that this may lead to much more robust initial learning, a stronger individual performance level, and good efficiency on a per-sample basis.

Probabilistic weather forecasting requires not only accurate trajectories, but calibrated distributions over plausible atmospheric futures. Recent data-driven systems have achieved remarkable deterministic skill, and diffusion-based ensemble forecasters have substantially improved sample realism and uncertainty quantification. However, their inference cost scales with forecast horizon, ensemble size, and the number of denoising steps required for each transition, making large operational ensembles expensive. To address this, we present Tyche, a one-step conditional flow model for efficient probabilistic weather forecasting. Tyche models the conditional forecast distribution with a destination-aware average-velocity flow that maps Gaussian noise directly to future weather states in a single function evaluation (1-NFE). To make this one-step transport learnable in high-dimensional geophysical fields, we derive a JVP-regularized rectification objective that enforces temporal self-consistency across source and destination flow timesteps without explicitly forming Jacobians. The transport field is parameterized by an isotropic Swin-style transformer that preserves fine-scale spatial structure while remaining scalable on global grids. To improve ensemble reliability under autoregressive forecasting, we further introduce a rollout-based finetuning stage with curriculum CRPS calibration supervision. Experiments on ERA5 at 1.5^circ and 6-hour resolution show that our Tyche, using merely a single NFE, matches or exceeds the forecast skill and calibration of state-of-the-art multi-step generative baselines and the operational ECMWF IFS ensemble.

Predicting trends in stock market prices has been an area of interest for researchers for many years due to its complex and dynamic nature. Intrinsic volatility in stock market across the globe makes the task of prediction challenging. Forecasting and diffusion modeling, although effective can't be the panacea to the diverse range of problems encountered in prediction, short-term or otherwise. Market risk, strongly correlated with forecasting errors, needs to be minimized to ensure minimal risk in investment. The authors propose to minimize forecasting error by treating the forecasting problem as a classification problem, a popular suite of algorithms in Machine learning. In this paper, we propose a novel way to minimize the risk of investment in stock market by predicting the returns of a stock using a class of powerful machine learning algorithms known as ensemble learning. Some of the technical indicators such as Relative Strength Index (RSI), stochastic oscillator etc are used as inputs to train our model. The learning model used is an ensemble of multiple decision trees. The algorithm is shown to outperform existing algo- rithms found in the literature. Out of Bag (OOB) error estimates have been found to be encouraging. Key Words: Random Forest Classifier, stock price forecasting, Exponential smoothing, feature extraction, OOB error and convergence.

As the issue of robustness in AI systems becomes vital, statistical learning techniques that are reliable even in presence of partly contaminated data have to be developed. Preference data, in the form of (complete) rankings in the simplest situations, are no exception and the demand for appropriate concepts and tools is all the more pressing given that technologies fed by or producing this type of data (e.g. search engines, recommending systems) are now massively deployed. However, the lack of vector space structure for the set of rankings (i.e. the symmetric group S_n) and the complex nature of statistics considered in ranking data analysis make the formulation of robustness objectives in this domain challenging. In this paper, we introduce notions of robustness, together with dedicated statistical methods, for Consensus Ranking the flagship problem in ranking data analysis, aiming at summarizing a probability distribution on S_n by a median ranking. Precisely, we propose specific extensions of the popular concept of breakdown point, tailored to consensus ranking, and address the related computational issues. Beyond the theoretical contributions, the relevance of the approach proposed is supported by an experimental study.

This research proposes a cutting-edge ensemble deep learning framework for stock price prediction by combining three advanced neural network architectures: The particular areas of interest for the research include but are not limited to: Variational Autoencoder (VAE), Transformer, and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. The presented framework is aimed to substantially utilize the advantages of each model which would allow for achieving the identification of both linear and non-linear relations in stock price movements. To improve the accuracy of its predictions it uses rich set of technical indicators and it scales its predictors based on the current market situation. By trying out the framework on several stock data sets, and benchmarking the results against single models and conventional forecasting, the ensemble method exhibits consistently high accuracy and reliability. The VAE is able to learn linear representation on high-dimensional data while the Transformer outstandingly perform in recognizing long-term patterns on the stock price data. LSTM, based on its characteristics of being a model that can deal with sequences, brings additional improvements to the given framework, especially regarding temporal dynamics and fluctuations. Combined, these components provide exceptional directional performance and a very small disparity in the predicted results. The present solution has given a probable concept that can handle the inherent problem of stock price prediction with high reliability and scalability. Compared to the performance of individual proposals based on the neural network, as well as classical methods, the proposed ensemble framework demonstrates the advantages of combining different architectures. It has a very important application in algorithmic trading, risk analysis, and control and decision-making for finance professions and scholars.